Really, can any Democrat beat Trump?
It’s official: Sen. Elizabeth Warren is running for the White House. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand announced her candidacy as well. And, most recently, Sen. Kamala Harris jumped in the race.
Which other Democrats are considering the top job in 2020? It might be easier to list those who aren’t running.
Basically, everyone you’ve ever heard of (and many you haven’t) think they have a shot in the next presidential election. They’ve assessed our current POTUS and smell blood in the Potomac.
Looking at presidential history, Trump should be in a good position to get another four years. The incumbent always has an advantage, especially with a strong economy and troops returning home.
But if we learned anything from 2016, the usual is in short supply. Anything can happen and likely will.
A Washington Post–ABC News poll recently showed that 56 percent of respondents would “definitely not vote for” Trump, while only 28 percent said they “definitely” would. The majority of Democrats don’t have any particular candidate in mind to replace him, rendering their primary wide open.
That’s why you see an endless roll call of Democrats flirting with a run. Candidates with high name recognition are septuagenarians Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Younger prospects with a national following include Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker and Tulsi Gabbard.
That’s eight candidates so far, but we’re just getting started.
Obama-era U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and HUD Secretary Julián Castro are making moves for 2020. From the Senate, there’s Michael Bennet, Sherrod Brown, Amy Klobuchar and Jeff Merkley.
And we have governors! Steve Bullock (Mont.), John Hickenlooper (Colo.), Jay Inslee (Wash.), and Terry McAuliffe (Va.) might take their executive success to the Beltway.
There are mayors (Pete Buttigieg, Bill DeBlasio, Eric Garcetti) and congressmembers (John Delaney, Joe Kennedy III, Eric Swalwell) and business tycoons (Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang). Each of these names has been floated for the highest office with several more behind them.
The way the race is shaping up, the Democratic primary debates will need to drop the lecterns and install bleachers instead.
Most Republicans aren’t worried about a President Pete Buttigieg (he’s the mayor of South Bend, Ind., by the way), but Donald Trump broke the primary mold. The day he descended the golden escalator to announce his candidacy, no Democrats were worrying about him either.
As the frontrunners attack each other through the primaries, a seeming alsoran could be the only candidate left standing.
Once we get to the general election, we could have two major party candidates that voters aren’t especially fond of. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is betting on that as he considers launching an independent bid.
Democrats are terrified that a centrist Schultz could pull votes away from their nominee. Republicans should worry too, especially as they watch females and suburbanites flee from the president in droves.
Even GOP candidates are considering a primary challenge. Former Sen. Jeff Flake has demurred, but Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Ohio’s John Kasich see an opening. The Washington Post–ABC News poll showed that a third of Republicans want a different nominee.
Predictions are deadly this far out, but no Republican will best Trump outside of a disastrous Mueller outcome or similar scandal. Any House move to impeach him will likely rally his party to his side.
As for the Democrats, most voters just want a candidate – any candidate – who can stand toe-to-toe with Trump on the debate stage. And match him insult-to-insult.
Jon Gabriel, a Mesa resident, is editor-in-chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to azcentral.com and The Republic. On Twitter, @exjon.