COYOTES TAKE SHAPE
There are varying opinions regarding how the Coyotes' lineup will shake out in 2019-20. Here, I'll be taking several looks at which combination of players could make up the roster.
The first version is this one, published after the bulk of free agency in mid-July. The second version will come at the outset of training camp, and the third (and final) version will come at the end of camp.
Projected lineup in 2019-20
Line combinations:
Lawson Crouse-Derek
Kessel
Christian Dvorak-Nick Keller
Michael Grabner-Brad Hinostroza
Barrett Hayton-Carl Soderberg-Conor Garland
Defense pairings:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson-Jason Demers
Jakob
Alex Goligoski-Jordan Oesterle Goalies:
Antti Raanta
Darcy Kuemper
Scratched: Michael Chaput, Christian Fischer, Ilya Lyubushkin. Stepan-Phil RichardsonVinnie Chychrun-Niklas
How good is that lineup?
SchmaltzClayton Hjalmarsson
Using the WAR lineup creator tool designed by @ChartingHockey, we can see how each part of the lineup is expected to perform relative to league average.
Just like in baseball, the purpose of WAR in hockey is to determine a player's overall value to their team. Thanks to this interactive table and WAR data tabulated by both @EvolvingWild and @MannyElk, we can project how each combination would fare over a full season.
The projection model has this Coyotes lineup finishing with 74 points in the standings, which would be 12 fewer than last year. That's a bit of a raw deal for a team that is unanimously considered to have improved this summer.
Of course, the model only accounts for data available. If players like Keller and Schmaltz have breakout seasons, it will heavily impact the data. The Coyotes are banking on many of their returning players to take major steps forward this season.
One thing we can glean from these projections is the balance of the Coyotes' roster. There might not be one line or pairing that shoots through the roof in terms of WAR, but there also isn't one that is below replacement-level.
Explanations
First line: I know everyone wants to see Keller, Schmaltz and Kessel together — and head coach Rick Tocchet may give it a shot — but exactly who is playing defense on that line? Crouse has the speed and skill to hang with Kessel, and Tocchet likes the idea of playing a tough guy with skill players.
Second line: I think Schmaltz would be great with Kessel off the rush, but Schmaltz should be paired with Keller given the chemistry the two forged in a limited sample last season. Tocchet is a big fan of riding pairs on a line, and those two could help each other to breakout seasons. Dvorak could help Schmaltz with face-offs and other various responsibilities at center.
Third line: This line was money last season and I don't expect Tocchet to turn away from it. I believe Tocchet views Grabner and Richardson as a valuable pair and will try to keep them together. Along with Hinostroza, the trio logged over 282 minutes of ice time last season and were excelled in Tocchet's de-factor shutdown line with a still-potent ability to provide offense.
Fourth line: Given the parity in the Coyotes' lineup, you could consider the third and fourth lines interchangeable. Either way, a veteran like Soderberg would be a great partner for Hayton as he learns the NHL game, as the two could effectively split center duties to ease the transition. Garland and Christian Fischer would compete for the right-wing spot.
Defensemen
First pair: No need to change things up here. Ekman-Larsson and Demers have excelled together over the last few seasons. The pair logged over 375 minutes last season and controlled possession more than 50% of the time.
Second pair: Chychrun and Hjalmarsson have complimentary skills. Chychrun is an offensive-minded defenseman with some defensive lapses, while Hjalmarsson is still one of the best shut-down defenders in the league. The pair has performed well together in the past.
Third pair: Goligoski took a step back last season while Oesterle had somewhat of a breakout year, earning himself a contract extension. Oesterle was a better possession player without Goligoski last season but this still seems like the most serviceable option as a third pairing.
Goaltenders: It will be interesting to see who receives the bulk of the starts, but there should be no surprise regarding which two goaltenders make this roster. It could wind up being one of the best duos in the NHL, as the projection model suggests.
Scratches: After signing Crouse to a three-year extension, the Coyotes had 12 forwards under contract with two empty roster spots. The guess here is that one will go to Hayton and the other to a player on a two-way contract, such as Chaput. Fischer fails to capture a starting spot in camp and finds himself as an extra forward. Lyubushkin looks like the extra defenseman at this point.
Tucson: Fischer could go to Tucson since he is waiver-eligible, but that seems like a leap at this point. Hayton is not AHL-eligible, so he either makes the NHL roster or goes back to juniors. Nick Merkley is one forward to watch in Tucson, as he will likely see some NHL time this season. Kyle Capobianco and Victor Soderstrom will compete for roster spots in camp, but they could easily wind up forming the most dynamic defense pair in the AHL next season.