Vulnerable House Democrats busily stuffing their war chests
WASHINGTON – The Republican pathway for recapturing House control in next year’s election charges straight through the districts of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, especially freshmen.
Judging from early but formidable cash advantages those lawmakers have amassed, ousting them won’t be easy.
Each of the 62 freshmen House Democrats has raised more money than the top opponent. The same is true for all 31 Democrats from districts President Donald Trump had won in 2016 and for all 39 Democrats who snatched Republican-held seats last November.
In nearly all cases it’s not even close. While there’s overlap among the categories, most of the Democrats’ war chests are multiples of what their leading challengers have garnered. That’s testament to the historic ability of both parties’ incumbents to attract contributions and Democrats’ strategy of aggressively collecting money quickly in hopes of scaring off potential challengers and seizing on the anti-Trump enthusiasm that fueled their House takeover last year.
“You don’t want to put money in a race where somebody’s doing that well,” said freshman Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., describing the view GOP donors could take when confronted with Democrats who’ve raised lots of money. “That means to me we can solidify our races early, especially if the polling stays solid.”
Hill has raised $1.3 million, more than triple the combined contributions reported by her four would-be Republican challengers. She was elected last year in a Southern California district Republicans had held since 1993.
Democrats control the House 235197, with one independent and two vacancies. Republicans would need 218 seats for a majority.
Democrats’ money advantages reflect reports filed with the Federal Election Commission covering the first half of 2019, so plenty can change by Election Day. Many serious challengers haven’t commenced their campaigns yet or have only recently started raising money, and many Republicans eventually will overtake their Democratic rivals.
In addition, by November 2020 many GOP candidates will be bolstered by the Republican Party’s allied super PACs, political action committees that can spend unlimited funds. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC that helps House candidates, unleashed $159 million in 2018 races, well above the $96 million by Democrats’ House Majority Fund.
“We haven’t seen anything yet. Wait till the super PACs start dropping their bombs later in the cycle,” said former New York Rep. Steve Israel, who once led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats’ election organization.
Republicans downplay the early money discrepancies but concede that the numbers merit attention.
“It’s a wake-up call to every Republican that you’ve got to be out there doing the work, making sure we beat the trend of money coming in” to Democrats, said Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill. Davis is a top Democratic target who was re-elected by less than 1 percentage point last November and faces a 2020 rematch against the well-financed Betsy Londrigan.