Ranking the top MLB free agents
As major league franchises and their approach toward evaluating free agents evolves, so, too does baseball’s process of free agency, once a free-for-all and now an often grim and protracted affair.
It is equal parts sprint and marathon and death march, depending on where a player lands on the spectrum.
For the rest of us, the parlor game is on – who signs where, and for how much?
Rankings based on projected future performance and perceived market value:
(Age as of April 1, 2020; 2019 team)
1. Gerrit Cole (29, RHP, Astros): The Nationals and Astros just battled for the World Series by emphasizing elite starting pitching, and other teams fell short by trying to cut corners on their rotation. And you’re saying there’s a right-hander hitting the market who just struck out 326 batters, led the AL in ERA (2.50) and FIP (2.64) and is just now coming into his own?
2. Anthony Rendon (29, 3B, Nationals): He destroyed the absurd “best player you’ve never heard of” narrative with a sublime postseason, collecting 10 extra-base hits, 15 RBI, a 1.003 OPS and a highlight reel of defensive artistry, all after hitting a career-best 34 homers.
3. Stephen Strasburg (30, RHP, Nationals): How many deferred dollars can Strasburg avoid in his next deal by opting out now? It’s widely assumed he’ll resign with the Nationals after exercising an out clause three seasons into a sevenyear, $175 million deal.
4. Josh Donaldson (34, 3B, Braves): He made the most of his pillow contract (a $23 million one-year deal) and his platform season, producing a .900 OPS and a year worthy of MVP consideration. And now, the musical chairs could work in his favor. Do the Braves bring him back, unsure if Austin Riley is ready for the full-time gig?
5. Zack Wheeler (29, RHP, Mets): Suitors will see his relative youth paired with significant upside and line up quickly, viewing him as a more affordable rotation addition than Cole. Wheeler struck out 195 in 1951⁄3 innings, his finest year yet in a career often dogged by what he could be.
6. Nick Castellanos (28, RF/3B, Cubs): He sprinted to the free agent market, posting a .321/.356/.646 line in 51 games after a trade to Chicago, and like Wheeler provides a modicum of talent to dream upon. Castellanos has never hit more than the 27 homers he slugged this season but showed what his true ceiling could resemble once liberated from Detroit and Comerica Park.
7. Madison Bumgarner (30, LHP, Giants): A decade after his big league debut, MadBum finally hits the market after his team-friendly deal expires, and does so in good shape.
8. Hyun-jin Ryu (33, LHP, Dodgers): Ryu accepted the Dodgers’ $17.9 million qualifying offer and then started the AllStar Game in July, led the NL in ERA (2.32) and adjusted ERA (179). Now, he’ll be free of the QO, but his age and a lateseason fade (a 5.40 ERA over his last 40 innings) will suppress his value a bit.
9. Jose Abreu (33, 1B/DH, White Sox): Perhaps the best pure power bat available, but in an era when everyone hits home runs, how much value does that carry? Still, Abreu bashed 33 homers, drove in 123 on a terrible team and his adjusted OPS ticked up to 119 in this year of the homer.
10. Dallas Keuchel (32, LHP, Braves): And here he goes again. With a qualifying offer attached and his pride intact, Keuchel was banished to the sidelines until after the June draft and then performed admirably, given the circumstances, and earned the Game 1 playoff start for Atlanta.
11. Yasmani Grandal (31, C, Brewers): That Class of 2018 just won’t go away, will it? Grandal took the Brewers’ qualifying offer-equivalent life preserver and improved almost across the board offensively, earning his first All-Star nod since 2015.
12. Will Smith (30, LHP, Giants): He’ll be three years removed from Tommy John surgery and coming off a season in which he cashed in 34 of 38 save opportunities and struck out 96 in 651⁄3 innings. The top closer and lefty reliever on the market, a lucrative combo.
13. Rick Porcello (31, RHP, Red Sox): Porcello’s fate will generate the most debate/consternation/angst of any player on the market. Why? His free agency pits his nine consecutive seasons of at least 28 starts and 172 innings pitched vs. his very bad platform year. We view Porcello as a decent bounce-back candidate.
14. Jake Odorizzi (30, RHP, Twins): Minnesota unlocked the best of Odorizzi, limiting his liability in many starts – he pitched just 159 innings – and enabling him to post career bests in adjusted ERA (131), FIP (3.36) and strikeouts per nine innings (10.1).
15. Marcell Ozuna (29, LF, Cardinals): He was a two-time All-Star and patrolled center field with aplomb in Miami, but Ozuna had health and performance problems in two seasons in St. Louis. The now-left fielder produced OBPs of .325 and .328 for the Cardinals, who traded for him after he hit 37 homers and reached at a .376 clip in 2017.
16. Will Harris (35, RHP, Astros): He backslid a bit following a 2016 All-Star nod, but Harris rallied this year to produce a 0.93 WHIP and 1.50 ERA and posted 10 consecutive scoreless playoff outings before getting dinged in Games 6 and 7 of the World Series.
17. Didi Gregorius (30, SS, Yankees): A return from Tommy John surgery was not seamless for Gregorius, who posted a career-worst .276 OBP in 82 games. Gregorius hit 20, 25 and 27 homers from 2016-18 and will try to sell clubs on that longer track record rather than a challenging 2019.
18. Cole Hamels (36, LHP, Cubs): A career-worst season in WHIP (1.39) and innings pitched (1412⁄3) still wasn’t a total flop for Hamels, whose 143 strikeouts pushed his strikeouts per nine to 9.1, his highest level since 2015.
19. Daniel Hudson (33, RHP, Nationals): Jobless in February, released in March, symbol of paternal rights in October and then immortalized flinging his glove skyward after recording the final out of the World Series.
20. Mike Moustakas (31, 3B/2B, Brewers): Is there a Walk Year Hall of Fame? Because Moustakas would be in on the first ballot, seeing as how he’s been forced to live year-to-year each of the past three years.