Impeachment trial: Will Sinema vote to convict?
“Do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws.” Senate oath
The U.S. Senate’s impeachment trial of President Donald Trump is almost certain to end in his acquittal given the makeup of the Republican-controlled chamber.
For Arizonans, the only real suspense now that the House has formally impeached the president is how Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will vote on the articles accusing Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
Sinema, who holds a law degree, is closely studying the articles, the witness testimonies and the House committee reports ahead of the trial, a Senate staffer said.
She has offered no insight into how she views the case presented by House Democrats but has consistently said she would withhold judgment until the evidence was presented to the Senate.
“Following the votes in the U.S. House, Senators have a Constitutional duty to treat this process with the gravity and impartiality that our oaths demand,” Sinema said Wednesday in a statement to The Arizona Republic.
“I will uphold that responsibility, free of partisan politics, regardless of the attitudes displayed by some elected officials in both parties.”
Sinema’s new comment came days after the views of her seatmate, Republican Sen. Martha McSally, became more clear.
McSally, who had been striking a more measured tone on impeachment, was captured on audio defending Trump while talking to Arizona Republican activists. McSally’s campaign manager later said she “hasn’t heard anything so far that would lead her to believe impeachment.”
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said outright he is “not an impartial juror” and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is ready to acquit even before the trial. Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, of Michigan, told supporters shortly after her swearing in back in January, “We’re going to impeach the motherf-ker.”
Oath to ‘do impartial justice’
While some of her Senate colleagues see the trial as a political exercise, all 100 senators will be required to take an oath before it begins. They will swear “do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws.”
Paul Bender, a professor of law at Arizona State University’s Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, said senators should be examining the question of whether Trump should be removed even if the people elected him.
“She should be thinking: Is it so dangerous to leave him in office that we can’t wait until the next election? What would such a danger be? If he’s doing things to corrupt the next election, for example. If he’s doing things that could permanently harm the country, that we can’t wait until the next election … it’s a question of, ‘Is it safe to leave him as president?’ That’s what ought to be in her mind.”
Bender, who taught law while Sinema was in law school at ASU, said senators should be assessing Trump’s entire record, not just his dealings with Ukraine.
Voting pattern could offer a hint
Although no one knows how Sinema will fall, her voting record is instructive.
In the House, she stuck with Democrats on preserving the Affordable Care Act and on opposing the Trump tax cuts, although she later voted to amend part of the tax cuts.
With some exceptions, she has sided with her party on substantive policy votes that the Senate has taken up during the 116th Congress. She has sided with Trump 21.4% of the time this session, according to the vote-tracking website FiveThirtyEight. Last session, she sided with the president 62.2% of the time. During those two sessions, on average, she sided with Trump’s position more than half of the time.
She was far more likely to cross party lines on judicial and executive nominees, where she emphasizes the Senate’s “advise and consent” role when examining the nominees.
She has voted, for example, to confirm Trump nominees William Barr as attorney general, David Bernhardt as Interior secretary and Dan Brouillette as Energy secretary.
The votes on Barr and Bernhardt may lead Arizona progressives to try to censure her at a Democratic gathering in January. But she has said she has no regrets on how she approached her vote. She has done nothing to quell the criticism from the left.
“Given the information that I had in every single one of these votes, I feel like I made the best decision with the knowledge I had at the time,” Sinema told The Republic last summer.
Poll: 43% of Arizona’s likely voters back impeachment
Chad Campbell, a longtime Sinema friend who served with her when she was in the Arizona Legislature, said he would expect Sinema to lean on her legal background.
“I think she’s doing what many senators aren’t doing, which is actually trying to remain impartial and analyze the evidence and get ready for an actual trial,” he said.
Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant who advised former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, recalled Sinema’s no-vote to refer Brewer’s 2010 salestax hike to the ballot. At the time, Arizona was in the depths of the recession and Brewer sought the increase to blunt its effects, namely on education.
Sinema stuck with Democrats to oppose the governor.
“My gut is — I’ve never talked to her about it point-blank or reflectively about it, but you would look at her career today and say that’s not who she is today,” he said. “She has made a concerted effort in my view to try ... to be reflective” of her constituents.
No votes she has previously taken compare to the gravity of a vote at an impeachment trial. And however Sinema votes on impeachment, she won’t face voters again until 2024.
Sinema won her 2018 race in the swing state of Arizona in part because she won over independent voters. Many supported her message of committing to work with anyone over McSally’s more partisan, pro-Trump tendencies.
Bruce Oppenheimer, professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, said he would be surprised if Sinema votes to acquit.
“I’d think she’s probably pretty offended by Trump and what he’s done,” he said. “The process has been a fair one. But clearly, if you were the Republicans and you were looking for Democrats who might vote against conviction, maybe she’s one of a handful that you’d look at.”
A poll of Arizona’s likely voters taken last week by Data Orbital found that 43% support impeaching Trump and removing him from office. Another 6% of respondents want to see Trump impeached but not removed.
The survey, which has a margin of error of 4%, found 46% don’t support impeachment at all.
The same survey found significantly different views by partisan alignment.
It found 86% of Democrats support impeaching Trump, with nearly all of them supporting his removal from office as well.
Only 16% of Arizona Republicans surveyed supported impeachment.
The poll found that 54% of independent voters surveyed backed impeachment, with most of them supportive of Trump’s removal.