Should Arizona tally COVID-19 cases by city?

Everywhere we go these days, data is being collected about us.

Our routine movements, our shopping preferences — Google and Facebook probably know us better than we do.

Yet the state Department of Health Services and Maricopa County Department of Public Health aren’t breaking down confirmed COVID-19 cases by city or ZIP code.

We know, simply, that as of March 25, there were 401 confirmed cases in Arizona. More than 60% of those — 251 — were in Maricopa County.

But Maricopa County has more than 4 million residents, and it’s larger in land area than some states. The cities in metro Phoenix aren’t islands, either. Most of us who live in one part of the Valley regularly travel to others.

So, why are we missing what seems like basic data about how the virus is moving and spreading through communities?

Because city- or even ZIP code-level data does not paint an accurate picture of the new coronavirus’s prevalence in Arizona, Maricopa County spokesperson Fields Moseley told me. Pointing out hot spots could provide a false sense of alarm or security — which doesn’t help matters given how quickly the numbers are changing.

We know, for example, that the number of confirmed cases is artificially low because not everyone with symptoms is being tested, and that some cases lag in the statewide reported data. The number of people with the novel coronavirus is almost certainly many times higher than what has been confirmed in state and private labs.

What’s more, being tested doesn’t necessarily mean people don’t have or will not later contract the virus. A handful of studies suggest people can spread COVID-19 without being symptomatic.

Public health officials don’t want people to think that if they live in an area with more confirmed cases, they are doomed — or conversely, that if they live far away from one, they are safe and social distancing measures somehow don’t apply to them.

Admittedly, this is a tough argument to accept. We’re conditioned to believe that more data will always better inform us and help us make smarter decisions.

But there’s an oft-forgotten corollary to that: Good data only comes from good inputs.

Arizona doesn’t necessarily have that — and it is not alone. The quality of coronavirus data varies widely by state, making it difficult to make comparisons or even say with certainty that what we’re doing to “flatten the curve” is working.

Arizona took a major step forward in requiring private labs to report how many tests they are conducting — positive and negative — and to send specimens to the state lab for further sequencing and analysis. Hospitals also are now being required to daily report staffing, available ventilators and ICU beds, and stocks of personal protective equipment, among other measures.

We need these data points to better understand COVID-19 and the strains it is placing on our health-care system.

But would tracking cases by city or ZIP code better inform the public (not to mention city leaders’ decisions)?

The state health department declined to offer specifics, telling me instead to contact county health departments. And Moseley was quick to point out that whether there are five cases or 1,005 in a ZIP code, it would not change what we are being asked to do to slow the spread.

We’re all supposed to stay home if feeling ill, if we’re at high risk because of age or an underlying medical condition, or if a member of our household has been diagnosed with COVID-19.

Public health experts also have said that we should act as if everyone we encounter could possibly be infected. So:

❚ Frequently wash your hands for at least 20 seconds with soap and water.

❚ Regularly disinfect high-touch surfaces, like cellphones, remotes and light switches.

❚ Don’t touch your face.

❚ And stay at least six feet away from others.

I’d like to think that more granular data about confirmed cases would help better inform our responses in this critical window while the virus is spreading. But I also can appreciate the arguments against it — and understand the no-win position officials are in with every coronavirus decision they make. They are under fire for doing too much or too little, sometimes from the same people.

It’s human nature to seek certainty in dark times. We want data to prove that what we are doing is not only right but effective.

Unfortunately, this pandemic offers neither.