Researchers warn crisis to hit AZ hospitals
Stay-home order urged to avert ‘catastrophe’
A team of university researchers says a statewide shelter-in-place order could help avert a “catastrophe” in Arizona hospitals.
In a memo to the Arizona Department of Health Services dated Friday, members of the University of Arizona’s COVID-19 modeling team say the state is heading toward a crisis in its hospitals.
Among the team’s recommendations is a shelter-in-place order that would include closing indoor dining and bars. Such an order could hold the limit of new cases below 6,200 cases per day, which is twice the current rate, the memo says.
“Without it, cases will quickly surpass this amount and cause even more disruption,” the memo says.
Officials with Gov. Doug Ducey’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment Monday. Ducey has not announced any new restrictions or requirements on Arizonans, despite increasing calls for a statewide mask mandate and other measures as
cases in Arizona continue to climb.
The UA memo echoes similar warnings in an Arizona State University report released Nov. 19 that projected Arizona will exceed its hospital capacity in December and that, without additional public health measures, holiday gatherings are likely to cause 600 to 1,200 additional deaths from COVID-19 in Arizona by Feb. 1. Those deaths are beyond current-scenario death projections.
“It has now reached a point to where we are truly in a crisis here in Arizona. ...The sooner we intervene the better off we will be. Every day of delay will result in needless hospital admissions and ultimately, what we also care about — deaths,” Joe Gerald, UA public health researcher and COVID-19 modeling team leader, said during a Monday afternoon briefing with Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. “The steps we must take are going to be difficult. They call for sacrifice from all of us on behalf of others.”
Romero on has called for a Tucson City Council meeting Tuesday to address urgent interventions to combat the spread of COVID-19, including a mandatory curfew, though Romero said she’d rather see statewide action from Ducey’s office.
‘Hospitals will be forced to decide who gets care and who does not’
The UA memo says that without additional public health interventions, Arizona “risks a catastrophe on a scale of the worst natural disaster the state has ever experienced. It would be akin to facing a major forest fire without evacuation orders.”
If no additional mitigation interventions are taken, the memo says, “hospitals will be forced to decide who gets care and who does not. Importantly, this will impact all Arizonans not just those with Covid-19 disease.”
Arizona is experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 that threatens to fill hospitals beyond capacity in coming weeks.
The number of patients hospitalized statewide for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 2,513 on Sunday, the highest number reported since July 27. At the peak of Arizona’s surge in July, the number of hospitalized patients suspected or confirmed to have the virus exceeded 3,000.
COVID-19 cases in Arizona increased by 197% between of Oct. 18 and Nov. 16, according to a report by the state health department.
Those over 65 years of age have the highest rate of hospitalization and death in Arizona. While people between the ages of 20 to 44 account for the highest number of cases, they have a much lower rate of hospitalization and risk of death, state health officials say.
Experts say mask mandate and shelter-in-place order could help
The UA team makes four expert recommendations in its memo, which are not official recommendations from the UA at large, officials emphasized:
● Immediate implementation of a statewide mask mandate with provisions that allow local enforcement including fines on non-compliant businesses and individuals. A statewide mandate ensures consistency and strengthens compliance, the UA team says.
● A statewide shelter-in-place ordinance starting Tuesday, Dec. 1, and extending through Dec. 22.
● To alleviate economic hardship imposed by the shelter-in-place order, the UA teams says the state should pass emergency COVID-19 relief measures for small businesses and families affected by closures and undertake additional measures to alleviate food insecurity, to prevent evictions and foreclosures, and to protect access to health services.
● If a statewide shelter-in-place mandate is not enacted, county and municipal leaders should get greater authority to enact their own shelter-inplace orders, business closures, and restrictions on public gatherings, the memo says.
The UA team has been assembled over time to augment requests for assistance by the state health department and others for assistance with data analysis and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak, UA officials said Monday.
The team includes seven core members led by Gerald. Other members are epidemiologists Kacey Ernst and Katherine Ellingson; BIO5 statisticians Bonnie LaFleur and Dean Billheimer; pulmonologist and UA College of Medicine—Tucson professor Dr. James Knepler; and Patrick Wightman, who is a health policy researcher and director of health analytics for the UA’s Health Sciences Center for Population Science and Discovery.