Arizona’s COVID-19 hospitalizations continue steady uptick

Arizona reported about 820 new COVID-19 cases and five new known deaths on Monday, while the number of patients hospitalized for the disease continued to rise to its highest level since the state’s summer surge.

The ongoing increase in cases and hospitalizations comes as Arizona’s health system tries to handle the pressures of a new COVID-19 wave. The situation is worsening both statewide and nationally and public health experts expect the virus to spread further due to Thanksgiving and upcoming holidays.

“Our forecast tool paints a very dark winter for us ahead. So I ask all of you to think about the mitigation that you can do to help us reduce this forecasting,” Dr. Marjorie Bessel, chief clinical officer for Phoenix-based Banner Health, said last week during a briefing. Banner Health is Arizona’s largest health care delivery system.

“Our tool shows that we’ll get above 125% of our licensed bed capacity starting about Dec. 4, and that we will continue that for some extended period of time, likely through mid-January. We’re asking everybody to do something now. Please consider your mitigation that you are undertaking as an individual, as a family and with your friends.”

A report released last week by Arizona State University predicts that hospital capacity in Arizona will be exceeded in December and that, without additional public health measures, holiday gatherings are likely to cause 600 to 1,200 additional deaths from COVID-19 in Arizona by Feb. 1 beyond current-scenario death projections.

Identified COVID-19 cases in Arizona rose by 822 on Monday to 326,817, and five new known deaths were reported, bringing the total number of known deaths to 6,639, according to the daily report from the Arizona Department of Health Services. The state often reports relatively lower case numbers on Mondays.

New cases have eclipsed 1,000 for 26 of the past 30 days, with 20 of those days seeing more than 2,000 new cases and six seeing more than 4,000 new cases for the first time since the state’s summer surge. The U.S. has been reporting record-high daily new cases of late.

New-case rates in Arizona fall below the rates reported in 24 other states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker says. Cases are surging in North Dakota, where the new-case rate per 100,000 people for the previous seven days was 112.3 as of Sunday, the CDC reports. By comparison, Arizona’s rate was 54.7.

The increase in new COVID-19 cases in the summer was an early indicator of more hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks to come.

Arizona could get its first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine before Christmas, Gov. Doug Ducey said in an interview with KTAR radio last week. Health care workers and first responders will be prioritized.

The number of patients hospitalized statewide for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 2,513 on Sunday, the highest number reported since July 27. At the peak of Arizona’s surge in July, the number of hospitalized patients suspected or confirmed to have the virus exceeded 3,000.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in intensive care units across Arizona was at 579 on Sunday, which was the most ICU beds in use in a single day since Aug. 5. The level is below what it was in July, when ICU beds in use for COVID-19 reached 970.

The number of Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators was at 352 on Sunday, a slight drop from 356 on Saturday, which was the most ventilators in use in a single day since Aug. 9. In mid-July, as many as 687 patients across the state with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were on ventilators.

Monday’s dashboard shows 86% of inpatient beds and 89% of ICU beds in use, which includes people being treated for COVID-19 and other patients. COVID-19 patients were using 29% of all inpatient beds and 33% of ICU beds. Overall, 40% of ventilators were in use.

After hospital occupancy in Arizona hit 90% last weekend, the state’s COVID-19 surge line suspended requests for out-of-state patient transfers.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, has gone up, which many health experts consider an early indicator of a spike in illnesses.

Of known diagnostic test results from last week, the percent positivity was 14%, up from 12% the week prior.