Two tight games on tap in semis

Let’s break down the two 5A state semifinal football games Friday night and predict the final score:

No. 4 Glendale Cactus (7-2) at No. 1 Casa Grande (7-1), 7 p.m.

Much of the hype surrounding Casa Grande’s team revolves around junior quarterback Angel Flores and his ability to not only throw the ball but run with it. The Cougars’ strength, actually, is the run game with both Flores and junior R.J. Keeton rushing for more than 800 yards and a combined 34 TDs. But now they run into a fast, athletic team whose strength is stopping the run with linebacker Aki Pulu coming off a monster quarterfinal game with 12 tackles and two interceptions, including one returned for a score, in a 41-7 victory over Flagstaff Coconino. Cactus has not lost to a team playing in the 4A bracket. Its losses were to Open Desert Edge and to 5A No. 1 seed Sunrise Mountain in the first three weeks of the season. Casa Grande hasn’t lost to a 4A bracket playoff team, either. Its lone loss was to begin the season against Tucson Salpointe Catholic, which is in Saturday’s Open semifinal. Cactus is driven by the reminder of how close it got to the final last year, only to see Mesquite move on to win it. Expect a great game that should go down to the final minute.

Prediction: Cactus 28, Casa Grande 24

No. 3 Gilbert Mesquite (7-1) at No. 2 American Leadership Queen Creek (8-1), 7 p.m.

This could be another shootout. Earlier in the season, Mesquite QB Ty Thompson threw five TD passes in a 60-42 win over American Leadership Queen Creek. The Patriots are vastly improved since then with junior QB Logan Hubler making huge strides. Hubler has 2,441 yards and 29 TDs to go with 370 yards and nine TDs rushing. He passed for 348 yards and three TDs in a 40-14 quarterfinal win over Phoenix St. Mary’s. The key is getting senior running back Trae Moshier going. He has 653 yards and 12 TDs rushing but hasn’t had a 100-yard game since the third week of the season in that loss to ALAQC, when he ran for 107 yards and three TDs. Mesquite has three players with more than 200 rushing yards, including the Oregon-bound Thompson, who leads the Wildcats with six running TDs. Thompson is eager to get back out there, coming off his lowest-rated game (83.9) in a 27-10 win over Northwest Christian. In that game, Thompson was 16 of 32 for 348 yards and two TDs with two interceptions. Thompson has been in this position before, knowing what it takes to win big games. Expect a huge game by him.

Prediction: