Boys state tourney breakdowns
Who’s the favorite? Who’s the dark horse? Who’s got what it takes to go the distance?
Let’s break down the Arizona high school boys basketball state brackets:
6A Conference
Thursday’s first-round, 7 p.m. No. 16 Corona del Sol at No. 1 Sunnyslope
No. 9 Basha at No. 8 Highland No. 12 Desert Vista at No. 5 Liberty No. 13 Chandler at No. 4 Brophy Prep No. 14 Pinnacle at No. 3 Perry No. 11 Valley Vista at No. 6 Mountain Pointe
No. 10 Desert Ridge at No. 7 HamiltonNo.
15 Mountain View at No. 2 Mesa The favorite Sunnyslope: Just two many horses on this team. Inside, outside, the Vikings can beat you in so many different ways. But it starts with defense. Maybe the best second-half team in the state. Coach Ray Portela always finds the second-half adjustments to make and the players crank up the intensity defensively, putting teams away. The early 14-day quarantine helped them get closer and pack on a heavy hard schedule that will pay off in the end. Watch for guard Oakland Fort and 6foot-8 Elijah Saunders and Grady Lewis to fill it up. Guard Malcolm Olexa is the X factor with his tremendous onball defense.
Biggest challenger
Gilbert Perry: But much of this has to do with the health of 7-foot junior Dylan Anderson, who has been having a Player of the Year season. An injury kept him out of the regular-season finale loss to Brophy Prep, which moved the Pumas into the 3 seed and against red-hot Pinnacle in the first round. They are not on Sunnyslope’s side of the bracket, but dangerous teams like Mountain Pointe, Valley Vista, Hamilton, Desert Ridge and Mesa are on their side. Perry doesn’t go anywhere without its big man. So Anderson’s return to form is crucial to make a run at the state title.
Bracket buster Mountain View:
Don’t ever count out a Gary Ernst team. He’s been in this business way too long to know how to win big games even with marginal talent. Mesa is a much more talented team that gave Sunnyslope its only loss, in overtime. But when you get rivals in the same gym together, anything can happen.
Dark horse
Valley Vista: Mountain Pointe has been up and down this year, but when the Pride is going strong with guards Tru Washington and Mark Brown, it’s an unstoppable force. Valley Vista coach Ben Isai made sure he bulked up his schedule this year and that should help the Monsoon in a game like this.
5A Conference
Thursday’s first-round, 7 p.m. No. 16 Gila Ridge at No. 1 Centennial No. 9 Cactus Shadows at No. 8 Williams Field
No. 12 Sunrise Mountain at No. 5 Buena
No. 13 Millennium at No. 4 Gilbert No. 14 Apollo at No. 3 Ironwood No. 11 Arcadia at No. 6 Desert Mountain
No. 10 Willow Canyon at No. 7 Nogales
No. 15 McClintock at No. 2 Catalina Foothills
The favorite
Catalina Foothills: The Falcons are well-coached, very disciplined, highly experienced, and they’ve got the big man, 6-10 Will Menaugh, to get them the gold ball. Their only loss was 48-46 to St. Mary’s, a game in which the Falcons dictated the methodical, slower pace and led most of the game. That game itself was key to helping strengthen this team to make a gold ball run.
Biggest challenger Centennial:
Coach Randy Lavender has done an incredible job since he arrived to turn the Coyotes into something more than a football school. He’s established a culture of unselfish play and high-power basketball with so many players contributing to the No. 1 seed. Watch for them to reach the final and perhaps raise that gold ball with their ability to run teams off the court. Bracket buster
Buena: The Colts, the No 5 seed, have already been the bracket buster by playing five games in the last week of the regular season, including a double-header on Friday that qualified them for state with the needed 10 games. They’re 9-1 and could be the darlings of the tournament with their late, wild ride starting the season a month later than the rest of the state. If they beat Sunrise Mountain at home, then can escape Gilbert in the next round, they’ll be the talk of the state. Dark horse
Arcadia: The Titans came into their final regular-season game with a chip on their shoulder as the No.16 seed, then blew out Cactus Shadows to show they’re a team to be reckoned with at state. They were rewarded with the No. 11 seed. They might be even better than that. They’ll find out against a solid Desert Mountain team. Guard Kieren Carr is one of the most underrated players in the state. The guy can flat score. Max Majerle brings an edge to the court.
4A Conference
Wednesday’s first round, 7 p.m. No. 16 Notre Dame at No. 1 St. Mary’s No. 9 Bradshaw Mountain at No. 8 Estrella Foothills
No. 12 Mesquite at No. 5 Pueblo Magnet
No. 13 Prescott at No. 4 Coconino No. 14 Saguaro at No. 3 Paradise Honors
No. 11 Tempe at No. 6 Desert Edge No. 10 Sahuaro at No. 7 Deer Valley No. 15 Dysart at No. 2 Salpointe Catholic
The favorite St. Mary’s:
Maybe not a better team in the state at any level. But the Knights need to be at full strength. They’ve played with only eight players all season and two key players sat out the regularseason finale, only a nine-point win over Tempe. Playing Mountain Pointe and beating the Pride by 30 was the confidence boost they needed to make a run to the school’s first state title in 12 years. Jason Fontenet Jr. and Garrison Phelps need to be out there playing at the top of their games in order to make it happen.
Biggest challenger Paradise Honors:
It should be a St. Mary’s-Paradise Honors rematch in the state final. Paradise Honors is seeded No. 3. It should be No. 2. But it will take care of No. 2 Salpointe when they face off. Paradise Honors has too many big pieces, led by guard Jalen Scott and big man Jayson Hunt. This is a team to be reckoned with under coach Zach Hettel, who still has to prove he can win the big game deep into the tournament.
Bracket buster Saguaro:
Yes, the Sabercats at No. 14. Young Lucas Ramirez has come in and got a great blend of players, including a mix of rugged football players, to buy in. They’ve not had the hardest schedule but on any given night, these guys can play big. Paradise Honors is a tough opening draw. But this will be one of the more physical teams the Panthers will face. There is absolutely no pressure on the Sabercats, who are expected, by most. to lose. That’s what makes them good. They play their best when they’re counted out.
Dark horse Mesquite:
These guys will take their No. No. 12 seeding and fuel up with what they might feel is a slight in the seeding. They’ve won 10 games in a row and this week blew out Saguaro 79-52. They have one of the most dynamic players in the state in Nate Calmese, but he’s not all they’ve got. Point guard Eric Lira is a glue guy and Cohen J Gonzales has been a big-time discovery in the way he can light it up. They should reach the semifinals where they’ll meet up with St. Mary’s.
3A Conference
Wednesday’s first round, 7 p.m. No. 16 Sabino at No. 1 Valley Christian No. 9 Gilbert Christian at No. 8 Pusch Ridge
No. 12 Camp Verde at No. 5 Page No. 13 Yuma Catholic at No. 4 Coolidge
No. 14 Thatcher at No. 3 Snowflake No. 11 American Leadership Ironwood at Florence
No. 10 American Leadership Gilbert North at No. 2 Fountain Hills
No. 15 Northwest Christian at No. 2
Winslow
The favorite
Valley Christian: They’re the only undefeated team at 16-0, but they’re coming off their most vulnerable moment, pulling out a 54-53 win Friday against Gilbert Christian. Maybe that’s the wake-up call, knowing nothing can be taken for granted the rest of the way. Coach Greg Haagsma is the master at winning big games and he’ll have the Trojans ready. Jaden De Boer has been a big out-of-state addition, averaging 21.6 points and 4.5 rebounds.
Biggest challenger Winslow: It really might be the No. 2 seed. The AIA is saying 25% of gyms can be filled because of the pandemic, but try telling that to the Navajo Nation. Winslow has a huge backing from the Navajo Indian reservation. And the Bulldogs have the moxie come state playoff time to go deep. Another great Winslow team is ready to make a run to the title.
Bracket buster
Thatcher: The Eagles are 9-9 and the No. 14 seed, but Snowflake knows better than to take them lightly. Thatcher lost two close games to Coolidge and lost to Florence in double overtime, and they’re motivated by the recent 20-point loss to Snowflake. They’re a dangerous team that could go off at any time.
Dark horse
Gilbert Christian: A No. 9 seed, the Knights will take their act on the road against Pusch Ridge. Win that, and it’s a rematch with Valley Christian, which the Knights pushed to the brink, before losing 54-53. Sophomore power forward Albert Wilson (18.8 points, 10.4 rebounds) can take over a game and a tournament.
2A Conference
Monday’s first-round, 7 p.m.
No. 16 River Valley at No. 1 Scottsdale Christian
No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Chandler Prep No. 12 St. Johns at No. 5 San Tan Charter
No. 13 Gilbert Classical at No. 4 Benson
No. 14 Arete Prep at No. 3 Pima No. 11 Glendale Prep at No. 6 Phoenix Country Day
No. 10 Arizona Lutheran at No. 7 Trivium Prep
No. 15 Horizon Honors at No. 2 Rancho Solano Prep
The favorite
Scottsdale Christian: First-year head coach John Anderson has taken what legendary coach Bob Fredericks left him and run with it, especially with an incredible defense that can lock down the best scorers.
Biggest challenger
Rancho Solano Prep: This is the defending state champion that is coming off a loss to San Tan Charter. That should serve as a kick in the rear to reignite these guys. Noe Vargas needs to put it into overdrive to get a chance to face Scottsdale Christian in the final. They lost to SCA 47-42 to close out January. Bracket buster
St. Johns: The 12-seed knows it has been playing up much of the season with losses to 3A Blue Ridge and Holbrook and two wins over 3A Show Low. The Redskins open against No. 5 San Tan Charter. That’s a tough opener, but they should be ready with their length. Brady Overson, a 6-5 senior, averaged 16.4 points and 14.5 rebounds. He’ll be a matchup problem for teams.
Dark horse
Phoenix Country Day: They’re the 6 seed with their only losses to Morenci and Scottsdale Christian. The 44-40 loss to SCA this week served notice they’re capable of making a run to the final with 28-points-a-game senior Will Miraglia leading the pack.
Two years from now, James Wiseman will likely hear a high-profile rookie say he was too much for him to handle.
Thursday was just his turn to admit he couldn’t match Deandre Ayton.
“I tried to do a move on him, but he was too physical.” said Wiseman after Golden State’s 120-98 loss to Phoenix.
Ayton was once that rookie who couldn’t hold his own against the likes of Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, but he’s far more up to the challenge now in his third NBA season.
However, Ayton should be an All-Star by now based on being the top overall pick in the 2018 draft, his talent, athleticism and skill set.
Luka Doncic and Trae Young, both drafted after Ayton, have made it. Doncic will make his second consecutive All-Star appearance Sunday in Atlanta.
That hasn’t happened for Ayton, but what is the actual path for him to become an All-Star? That’s debatable, but it’s not the initial one expectations set him upon.
New All-Star path
Instead of being an offensive force like say Embiid, a four-time All-Star, he’s now showing defensive skills that could lead to becoming the league’s defensive player of the year someday, especially since it’s helping Phoenix become a winning team again.
The Suns (24-11) have the NBA’s second-best record behind Utah (27-9).
Ayton has more offensive skills than two-time Jazz All-Star Rudy Gobert, a two-time NBA defensive player of the year himself, but doesn’t have the scoring mentality to average 30 a night like Embiid.
So maybe becoming a combination of the two for a championship contender could lead to Ayton reaching All-Star status.
Before going any further, let’s have some fun in creating an All-Star Ayton with some statistical merging of Embiid’s and Gobert’s numbers this season.
Embiid – 30.2 ppg., 52.1% FG, 41.6% 3PT, 85.6% FT, 11.6 rpg., 1.4 bpg.
Gobert – 14.2 ppg., 64.1%, FG, 0.00% 3PT, 59.9% FT, 13.1 rpg., 2.7 bpg.
Average – 22.2 ppg, 58.1% FG, 20.8% 3PT, 72.7% FT, 12.35 rpg. 2.05 bpg.
That’s average is a pretty impressive player even with the poor 3-point shooting as Gobert has only taken one 3 this season, four total in his eight NBA seasons (0-for-4).
Now compare Embiid-Gobert merger numbers to what Ayton is averaging this season.
Average – 22.2 ppg, 58.1% FG, 20.8% 3PT, 72.7% FT, 12.35 rpg. 2.05 bpg.
Ayton – 14.5 ppg., 59.4%, 23.5% 3PT, 11.4 rpg., 75% FT, 1.1 bpg.
Ayton is already shooting a higher percentage from the field and just a rebound and block short of matching those numbers.
More free throw takes, makes
And while nearly eight points short in the scoring department seems a ways off, that’s essentially two more buckets and four more free throws, three more buckets and two more free throws or any other combination that can be calculated in one’s head.
Attempting more than 2.5 free throws and making them at an 80% percent clip would increase his scoring average in a way that usually goes unnoticed during the game, but pointed out in the box score by both teams, especially by the losing team if Ayton reaches double figures in both in a win for the Suns.
Ayton won’t reach those numbers this season because Phoenix is primarily a perimeter team led by an All-Star backcourt of Devin Booker and Chris Paul with multiple guys who can knock down 3s.
The Suns have 10 players shooting at least 36% from deep with Booker, a 3point contest champion (2018) and runner-up (2020), being the lowest at 36.2%.
However, Ayton will continue to have his moments to be a scoring force when the 3s aren’t falling or falling so well, he gets single coverage with no help. Ayton has shown the ability to pass out of the double team, but still isn’t as aggressive as he could be.
Maybe dunking the ball more would show signs of the ferociousness many want to see him display. He still doesn’t finish around the basket or even catch the ball well for that matter, but is doing his part to help Phoenix have a special season so far.
That’s the main thing the Suns care about right now.
Part of winning formula
Ayton is still developing chemistry with Paul. They’re doing the homework of film study together and Ayton is taking heed to Paul’s words.
The next step is translating those sessions into more production that may not always show in Ayton’s stats.
It could be being in the right place more to open it up for someone else.
Williams has already made it clear big men need more time to develop. That initially meant something because he coached All-Star Anthony Davis, who is arguably the league’s best big, in New Orleans.
Those words mean even more because Phoenix is winning.
So if Williams says Ayton is doing what they’re asking and defending his big against the criticism, that’s making people rethink who Ayton is and what he could become.
Ayton’s arrival in Phoenix was far more celebrated because he played college at Arizona, looks like a Greek sculpture and that whole “Shaq-Kobe 2.0” talk.
Dubbing himself and Booker the next Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant factored in setting a extremely high bar for Ayton to reach.
He was seen as this talent with tremendous offensive ability. That eliminated the idea of him progressing and developing.
Nah. He had to deliver right away. Ayton had his share of big games in averaging 16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and posting 39 double-doubles in earning first-team NBA all-rookie honors.
So Year 2, with Williams now his head coach, felt like a breakout season was coming for Ayton.
Major adjustment
Then after one game, Ayton received a 25-game suspension after testing positive for a diuretic. Even though he came back to average career highs in points (18.2), rebounds (11.5) and blocks (1.5), Ayton missed 10 games due to injuries, too.
So the season was a wash even though he had solid bubble moments.
Then the Suns reconstructed their roster again by trading for Paul and adding more veterans led by Jae Crowder.
Add the improvement of Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, the Suns no longer look like the team that once wanted to build around Ayton and Booker.
So maybe more than anyone, Ayton has had to adjust his game for the betterment of the team. That has led to winning and made it easier for him to not only digest, but embrace
He’s open to criticism from Paul, Booker, Crowder and anyone else who sees fit to alert him of his responsibilities to the team. The Suns have found a winning formula with Ayton being a defender who scores when necessary.
Not exactly his job description to start his NBA career, but it’s working for all.
Phoenix knows it must find a future point guard to replace the 35-year-old Paul, who has a player option after this season as he’s due $44.2 million next season.
Whenever Paul’s time is up in Phoenix, Ayton should be ready to take his game to that All-Star level in helping the Suns stay on the winning track.