Ariz. adds 5,070 new COVID cases, 78 deaths
COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Arizona are rising and have done so for the past couple of weeks.
On Friday, the state reported 5,070 new COVID-19 cases and 78 new known deaths. The last time the state reported more than 5,000 new cases in a day (excluding higher reports due to data catch-ups) was on Jan. 31.
Hospitalizations have risen significantly, with 2,415 patients hospitalized Thursday across Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19. That’s a level not seen since February during the tail end of last winter’s brutal surge.
About 22% of reported COVID-19 cases in Arizona in October were breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated people, according to state health officials, who say the vaccine remains the best way to prevent severe illness and death. Still the vast majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are among people not fully vaccinated.
As of Oct. 18, the breakthrough fatality rate in Arizona was less than 0.01%, state data shows.
Maricopa County health officials found from some of their October data that unvaccinated individuals in the county were 31⁄2 times more likely to get a COVID-19 infection than fully vaccinated individuals. And those not fully vaccinated were about five times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than fully vaccinated individuals, per health officials.
Previous days this week saw the following new case reports: 3,985 on Nov. 13; 3,086 on Nov. 14; 2,774 on Nov. 15; 3,240 on Nov. 16; 3,459 on Nov. 17; and 4,184 on Nov. 18.
Death reports for the past week were: 51 on Nov. 13; two on Nov. 14; zero on Nov. 15; 83 on Nov. 16; 16 on Nov. 17; and 56 on Nov. 18.
The Arizona Republic generally recaps the state’s daily numbers online in a COVID-19 updates blog and in a weekly recap story online on Thursdays or Fridays and in the newspaper on Sundays.
Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 12th Thursday among all states and territories after ranking first and second for much of January and then lower since, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 Data Tracker.
Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 51st among 60 states and territories on March 28, but its rank has fluctuated. Last week, it ranked 14th.
The state’s seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was at 3,685 on Friday, compared with 3,495 a week ago and 2,810 two weeks ago. The average had reached as high as 9,800 in January, according to state data.
Arizona’s seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 14th in the nation out of all states and territories as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it’s measured. It’s been higher in recent weeks, a sign of more community spread.
For most of May and June, Arizona’s percent positivity for COVID-19 testing was at 4-5%, before rising over the course of July and August. It was 10% for the week of Sept. 5 and 9% for each week after through the week of Oct. 17. It was 10% for the week of Oct. 24, 11% for the week of Oct. 31 and 12% for the week of Nov. 7. It’s at 13% so far for the week of Nov. 14.
The percentages are now for all diagnostic tests conducted, rather than for unique individuals tested, following a change to the state dashboard.
Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of percent positives at 10.9% as of Friday. It shows the state’s percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.
A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease’s spread is under control.
The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.
The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 298 deaths per 100,000 people as of Wednesday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 230 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
New York City has the highest death rate, at 413 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Mississippi, Alabama, New Jersey and Louisiana.
Arizona’s case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began ranked 16th nationwide as of Thursday.
Arizona’s known COVID-19 death count was at 21,886 after 78 new known deaths were reported on Friday.
The state surpassed 21,000 known deaths on Oct. 27 after passing 20,000 deaths on Oct. 1, 19,000 deaths on Aug. 31, 18,000 deaths on July 6, 17,000 deaths on April 7, 16,000 deaths on March 2,15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.
Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.
A total of 1,233,146 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state.
Hospitalizations rising quickly
The Arizona data dashboard shows 93% of all ICU beds and 94% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use on Thursday, with 34% of ICU beds and 28% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 119 ICU beds and 491 non-ICU beds were available.
The number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 2,415 on Thursday, an increase from recent numbers and a level not seen since early February. Last week, that number was at 2,083 and two weeks ago was at 1,864. The record was 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. The highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.
The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona has also increased and was at 602 on Thursday, compared with 530 a week earlier, still far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July 2020, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.
Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators rose to 363 on Thursday. The record-high 821 was reached on Jan. 13. During the summer 2020 surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.
Thursday saw 1,778 patients in Arizona emergency rooms for COVID-19, below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.
Vaccination update
Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for health care workers, longterm care facilities and front-line first responders in mid-December, before shifting to a largely age-based rollout in March. Arizonans ages five and older are eligible to get the Pfizer vaccine, while the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are approved for those 18 and older.
The state reported about 4.4 million people in Arizona — about 61.2% of the total state population — had received at least one vaccine dose as of Friday, with more than 3.8 million residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The state’s data dashboard now separates out doses administered to Arizona residents versus all doses administered in the state.
Arizona’s rate of fully vaccinated people out of the total population is 54.1%, which is behind the national rate of 58.9%, according to the CDC as of Thursday.
Out of those ages 12 and older, 63.5% of those in Arizona are fully vaccinated compared with 69% at the national level, CDC data shows.
What to know about the numbers
Reported cases in Arizona: 1,233,146.
Cases since the outbreak began increased by 5,070, or 0.41%, on Friday from Thursday’s 1,228,076 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered.
Cases by county: 778,107 in Maricopa, 154,017 in Pima, 78,568 in Pinal, 42,370 in Yuma, 35,220 in Mohave, 31,075 in Yavapai, 24,727 in Coconino, 23,653 in Navajo, 17,307 in Cochise, 14,929 in Apache, 10,689 in Gila, 9,607 in Santa Cruz, 8,232 in Graham, 3,325 in La Paz and 1,320 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.
The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Graham County, followed by Navajo, Apache, Yuma and Santa Cruz counties, per state data. The rate in Graham County is 21,395 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 14,263 cases per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
The Navajo Nation reported 38,616 cases and 1,518 confirmed deaths in total as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.
The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,450 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Friday, including 2,246 in Tucson, 2,035 in Eyman, 2,012 in Yuma, 1,315 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 51,176 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 3,196 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Fifty-six incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with five additional deaths under investigation.