Why Hamilton will beat Saguaro in Open semifinal
Chandler Hamilton and Scottsdale Saguaro have become a great football rivalry since the Open Division began two years ago.
Saguaro rallied in the second half to beat Hamilton in the semifinals of the inaugural Open in 2019.
Last year, Hamilton came to Saguaro for an ESPNU game and flexed its defensive muscles in a 13-7 regular-season win.
They probably would have met in the semifinals again last year, had COVID-19 not ended Saguaro’s season on Thanksgiving Day.
But here it is. They’re back, playing Saturday night at 6 at Hamilton, where an overflow crowd is expected, to see who advances to the Open Division state high school championship game Dec. 11 at Arizona State’s Sun Devil Stadium.
Hamilton (11-0) isn’t an overwhelming favorite. Saguaro (10-1) matches up as well as anybody in the state with its size and athleticism and skill, from offense, defense to special teams.
But I’ve got Hamilton winning a close game, because of these factors:
Front seven
Which defensive front is better? Saguaro can bring the heat with Wisconsin-committed defensive end Tristan Monday, one of the strongest, most athletic defensive end in a state that might be having its best season ever for defensive ends. Hamilton counters with senior defensive end Russell Davis II, who has committed to Arizona, who is good as anybody in the state at getting into the backfield and pressuring the quarterback. He has 27.5 tackles for losses and 17.5 sacks.
Davis seems to have more help. Chandler Davis and Dawson Hubbard are both beasts. As a team, Hamilton has 47 sacks and 82 quarterback hurries. This Hamilton defense may be going down among the top high school defenses in Arizona history. And that pressure is making it easier for the back layer to make plays. The Huskies have intercepted 12 passes, led by Genesis Smith with four and Tre Tate with three. Senior cornerback Joel Gant, who has broken up 11 passes, has allowed only one touchdown pass scored against him all season.
The quarterback
Devon Dampier, who started his first game of the season last week in Saguaro’s 42-21 quarterfinal win over previously unbeaten Glendale Cactus, gives the Sabercats a dimension that could keep Hamilton’s terrific front seven off balance. He can flat run, escape pressure, make throws on the run, and take it
himself for big gains. If Dampier can cut down on mistakes, he gives Saguaro a great chance at winning. And he’s got guys around him, particularly senior Javen Jacobs, who can make plays once the ball is in their hands. Saguaro’s speed at the QB position is a real threat.
But it hasn’t seen Nicco Marchiol yet this season, and Marchiol is much better than he was last year when he mostly relied on his legs to barrel over people. Marchiol is a tough, physical quarterback, maybe the most mentally tough quarterback Hamilton has ever had. He has been so efficient, so good, and so clutch that it’s hard to pick against him, no matter who they’re playing. Remember the incredible last-minute comeback win over national powerhouse Las Vegas Bishop Gorman. That last minute put Marchiol on a level that is making him the leader for Player of the Year right now. There doesn’t seem to be any indication that Marchiol will have an off night. He loves it when the spotlight gets bigger, the lights shine brighter. The line, led by senior Grayson Stovall, protecting him, wide receivers Christian Anaya and Tre’ Spivey have been clutch, and running backs Nick Switzer and Logan Krei can grind out tough yards.
Special teams
Last year, Jacobs scored Saguaro’s only touchdown against Hamilton on a punt return. The Huskies probably keep the ball away from him. Punter Roch Cholowsky is one of the best in the state with distance, hang level and placing the ball. He is averaging 47.5 yards a punt and has placed 18 of his punts inside the 20-yard line. That’s a weapon not many teams have. Hamilton uses three kickers. For long field goals Matthew Krneta has hit on all seven of his field-goal tries, his longest from 47 yards. That 47-yard field goal by the way came with a minute left against Bishop Gorman and jump started the 17-0 run.
Final score
Hamilton 28, Saguaro 21