Lots of rain expected for monsoon in 2022
A wetter 2021 followed 2020’s record dry season
The National Weather Service in Phoenix predicts that Arizona is going to have a very wet and active monsoon this summer, with nearly a 70% chance of precipitation expected to reach near or above normal across the Southwest.
Following the driest monsoon on record in 2020, one of the wettest monsoons on record across the Southwest occurred in 2021.
“Many areas saw record monsoon rainfall. It was a very wet monsoon. Of course, the year before that was the driest on record,” said Marvin Percha, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Phoenix.
Average rainfall during the core monsoon months of June through September across the region in 2021 was 7.93 inches, which was the 20th wettest on record since 1895, according to a review done by the weather service. The absolute heaviest rainfall fell near and over mountains across the region.
The monsoon begins June 15 and ends Sept. 30, according to the weather service — which established the timeline in 2008.
“At least the odds are better than usual that we’ll see normal to above normal rain,” Percha said. “Most of our storms are hit or miss so even if you don’t have rain, you still have the dust storms, the damaging winds and the lightning as well.”
Over 2.3 million cloud-to-ground lightning strikes occurred between June and September 2021, which was 30% under the record average of 3 million, according to the National Weather Service.
Thunderstorms in mid-June last year also produced lightning strikes that caused forest fires in drier regions that were not experiencing significant rainfall. These fires burned over 100,000 acres on state and federal public lands.
“If we get normal or above normal rain, it reduces fire danger levels,” Percha said. “That’s what we’d like to see, having that rain to benefit both vegetation and the animal life.”
What causes the monsoon? According to the weather service in Phoenix, high pressure in the atmosphere over northern Mexico strengthens and drifts northward during the summer months, which causes a reversal in the weather pattern across the Southwest.
While storms typically move from west to east in the spring, storms will
move from east to west in the summer.
This flow then causes high levels of moisture to gather in the atmosphere across the desert landscape as tropical air moves north, according to the weather service.
With the combination of summer heat and moisture, conditions are more likely to become more favorable for periodic rain showers and thunderstorms.
After the heavy monsoon weather in 2021, Arizona experienced the most cases of West Nile virus since the first data was collected by the Arizona Department of Health Services in 2004.
West Nile virus is a disease carried by mosquitoes whose activity increases with the rains of the monsoon.
According to the Arizona Department of Health Services, there were a total of 488 confirmed cases and 1,156 probable cases of West Nile virus. In addition, a total of 113 people died from the disease in Arizona in 2021.
The department advises that people protect their homes from mosquitoes by keeping yards clean and clear of debris that can host potential breeding sites. Mosquito screens on doors and windows can also help with keeping mosquitoes outdoors.
How to stay safe during monsoon
The Phoenix Police Department has devised a list of resources and safety tips for drivers to consider while on the roads during the monsoon:
Do not attempt to drive through a flooded road. The depth of water is not always obvious. The roadbed may be washed out under the water, and you could be stranded or trapped.
● Six inches of water can cause most cars to lose control.
● Two feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles including sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickup trucks.
Don’t drive around barricades. Barricades are there for your protection. Turn around and go the other way.
Treat non-working or flashing traffic signals at intersections as a four-way stop. Proceed with caution.
If floodwaters rise around your car but the water is not moving, abandon the car and move to higher ground. Do not leave the car and enter moving water.
Additionally, the Arizona Emergency Information Network says flooding can cause power outages, traffic issues, damage to buildings and landslides.
At least five people died during Arizona’s monsoon in 2021 due to flash floods: two in Gila Bend, one in Grand Canyon National Park, one in Cottonwood and another in Pima County.
In the case of a flash flood, the Arizona Emergency Information Network advises that people immediately seek higher ground by foot.
Flooding in 2021 also left thousands of people without power throughout the season.
In the case of a power outage, the city of Phoenix advises people to call their electricity provider to report outages.