What can Hobbs do with GOP Legislature?

Suddenly, Katie Hobbs is front and center in Arizona. So now what?

The quiet candidate who was overshadowed by her louder, shinier opponent on Monday evening showed us exactly why she won.

“For the Arizonans who did not vote for me, I will work just as hard for you — because even in this moment of division, I believe there is so much more that connects us,” she said. “We all want safer streets, a secure border, better schools, lower costs and water for generations to come.”

Contrast that with what Lake would have said, had she been elected. I’m pretty sure it would have gone something like this:

“Boom! We the people have spoken. Those losers in the party of McCain can go suck it and Katie can go back to her basement. I 100% deserved this even though they tried to steal my victory. Now, I’m going to spend every day of the next eight years taunting my enemies because I am a movement. On Day 1, I will declare war on the border, the media, Maricopa County and anyone else who dares to get in my way. MAGA forever.”

Yeah, I’m going to miss her, too. I don’t expect that Hobbs will be a visionary governor. (It’s been decades since we had one of those.) But my money’s on her getting some things done — freeing up vital funds for public schools, protecting the state’s groundwater supply and perhaps even repealing the territorial-era ban on abortions.

“I don’t think Hobbs is going to come in with some extreme agenda, obviously,” Democratic strategist Chad Campbell told me. “I think her agenda is going to match the priorities of most Arizonans. The question is, how willing is this Republican Legislature to work with a Democratic governor?”

My guess: Willing enough, at least on certain issues.

The Legislature may be run by Republicans, but there are signs that Hobbs can crack open a window there.

Both chambers have just a one-vote

Republican majority, and while MAGA is a formidable force, it’s not likely to be an insurmountable one.

Consider that Rep. Ben Toma of Peoria was elected the new House speaker this week over Turning Point USA’s pick for the job, the hard-right Rep. Joseph Chaplik of Scottsdale.

While half of the 31 House Republicans are likely to be a no on everything, there are deals to be made elsewhere. Assuming Democrats hang together, Hobbs would need just two Republican votes. Keep your eye on Republican Rep. Michele Pena, a single mom from Yuma who won a seat in a district dominated by Democrats. (Legislative District 23, covering parts of Yuma, metro Phoenix and Tucson.)

In the Senate, leadership is solidly in the hands of election deniers, but already there are cracks in the Republican caucus. Sen. Warren Petersen of Gilbert, Turning Point USA’s pick, is the new Senate president, but he beat out Sen. David Gowan of Sierra Vista by just one vote. This, after three hard-right Republicans who ultimately lost their races – Nancy Barto of Phoenix, Robert Scantlebury of Mesa and Gary Garcia Snyder of Yuma – were allowed to participate in leadership elections.

Petersen then stripped Gowan of the chamber’s most powerful committee chairmanship. Instead of resuming his role as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, he’ll oversee the Committee on Military Affairs & Border Security.

Insiders tell me at least six of the 16 Republican senators are unhappy with Petersen’s blatant power grab. That’s six opportunities for Hobbs to strike deals.

“She’s going to try and navigate a practical course of solving practical problems in Arizona,” Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin told me. “I think she’ll be able to do that with the leadership in the Legislature.

“From outside, it looks MAGA, but you have to acknowledge the schisms within inside the caucus and the fact that she (Hobbs) is a caucus of one. In order to get something done, you’ve got to give her something.”

Perhaps something like a repeal of the territorial-era law that makes abortion illegal in all cases except to save a dying woman.

Or new limits on groundwater pumping in rural Arizona, so that Saudi Arabian companies, for instance, can’t suck up our dwindling supply to grow crops for their cows.

Or a rescue operation for Arizona’s public schools. They’ll have to cut their budgets by more than $1 billion unless the Legislature takes quick action to lift an antiquated aggregate spending limit set in 1980.

To avoid an annual disaster, the issue needs to be put on the 2024 ballot, allowing voters the chance to update the constitutional spending formula.

Look for Hobbs to be moderate in her requests, understanding that she is governor not by virtue of a mandate but because a fair number of Republicans and right-leaning independents simply could not vote for Kari Lake.

And look for the Legislature to be resigned to fulfilling at least some of those requests.

Republicans, after all, don’t just need 16 and 31 votes if they want to get anything done over the next four years.

They also need one more.