GOP candidates in major Arizona races who promoted false elections claims were defeated
Candidates who made baseless accusations about the 2020 election as part of their 2022 campaigns did not fare well in statewide races in Arizona, though they were able to win several legislative and congressional seats where the Republican Party was favored.
Republican candidates who denied President Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 election lost races for governor, U.S. Senate, secretary of state and the U.S. House of Representatives in several districts, according to unofficial results as of Wednesday.
The race for attorney general was too close to call and likely heading to a recount.
But candidates with those views on 2020 also won election to the Legislature, Corporation Commission and the U.S. House of Representatives.
● Five election deniers were elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. GOP House candidate Juan Ciscomani didn’t run as an election denier or questioner; he won his race.
● At least nine election deniers were elected to the Arizona Legislature.
GOP candidates who won races for state treasurer and superintendent of public instruction avoided addressing the 2020 election during their campaigns.
“The general electorate voters told most election-denying candidates to pound sand. They have banished at the ballot box virtually all the statewide election-denying candidates. And the voters have told us they want to look forward. They don’t care about two years ago.”
Republican consultant Barrett Marson
Several other GOP candidates questioned the results if not outright denied them, and sometimes the distinction was subjective. For example, two GOP candidates for the Arizona Corporation Commission campaigned together and sometimes responded to media requests with joint statements. One rejected the 2020 results while the other questioned them when they were asked by separate reporters.
Arizona election deniers
So what do the 2022 results say about candidates denying election results?
“The general electorate voters told most election-denying candidates to pound sand,” Republican consultant Barrett Marson said. “They have banished at the ballot box virtually all the statewide election-denying candidates. And the voters have told us they want to look forward. They don’t care about two years ago.”
He said Republicans should have swept the statewide elections, and another GOP consultant agreed.
“I don’t think these legislators that won their seats in these safe Republican districts won because they are election deniers – they won because they are Republicans in low-information races,” said GOP pollster Paul Bentz, a senior vice president at the Phoenix firm HighGround.
He said based on polling before the election, voters were not motivated by claims about the 2020 election.
“The vast majority, about threequarters of our electorate, do not believe the election was stolen,” Bentz said. “Republicans were on the wrong side of those items.”
Moments that were key in losses
Bentz said claims about the election played most prominently in the secretary of state race, where Republican Mark Finchem lost to Democrat Adrian Fontes.
He said the late October episode of “60 Minutes” featuring Finchem likely played a role in his loss.
“The ‘60 Minutes’ special and some long-form news coverage of Finchem that happened in the final month of the race was very impactful on Finchem’s candidacy,” he said.
He noted that in a final poll before the race, Finchem was the only Republican who was not getting at least 50% of the vote from people 65 and older, which he attributed to the recent media coverage of him, which also focused on his participation in the Jan. 6, 2021, events at the U.S. Capitol.
Lake media appearance cited
Republican Kari Lake’s campaign for governor also might have hinged on a critical media appearance where her opinions on elections were widely exposed, said Democrat consultant Stacy Pearson, co-founder of Lumen Strategies.
“The single mistake Kari Lake made was going on CNN when polls showed her with a slim lead and already talking about not conceding if she lost,” Pearson said of a mid-October interview the candidate conducted on the cable network.
In that segment, Lake was asked directly if she would accept the election result if she lost, and she refused to answer.
“I’m going to win the election and I will accept that result,” Lake said.
Pearson said it was a wake-up call to undecided voters, and an “idiotic” move by Lake.
“The drumbeat of 2020 conspiracy theories in large part have just gone ignored. We have heard it. We have seen it. We were the epicenter of it in Arizona. But when she flipped to project this chaos moving forward, it was a huge mistake,” Pearson said.
“We saw how that turned out last time, with an insurrection, and dead cops,” she said of what voters thought when they watched that interview.
Lake’s comments on CNN dominated the election news for two days.
“It was the mistake that could account for the 20,000-ish votes that fell in Katie Hobbs’ favor,” Pearson said.
Strategist: Election integrity resonates
Conservative political strategist Christine Bauserman of Successful Strategies in Tucson said election integrity should remain a part of candidates’ message going forward, but perhaps a heavy focus on 2020 was a mistake for some.
“There’s specific candidates and the way they worded it with the steal and stuff, I kind of agree ... that wasn’t the wisest thing obviously,” said Bauserman, who was a staffer for President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign.
The problems with printers in Maricopa County and other complaints about state elections, including the time it takes to count votes, are still going to resonate with many voters, she said.
She also said it is difficult to believe that candidates’ positions on elections drove away voters.
“I find it surprisingly difficult to grasp, with $5 gas and prices so high and people flooding across the border and you are worried about what someone thinks about the elections?” she said.
She said Republicans at the top of the ticket also were “flawed,” considering Lake’s prior affiliation with President Barack Obama and Masters’ connections to California and the tech industry, which could put off Arizonans.
Republicans more loyal down ballot
Bentz said that while many Republicans couldn’t support Lake or Finchem, once they got to the other races on their ballot, particularly those such as treasurer and corporation commission that most voters know little about, they voted based on allegiance to their party.
That, he said, explains the major Republican wins such as Kimberly Yee for treasurer.
“We are still a red state,” he said, citing the Republican registered voter advantage.
Marson said Republican candidates need to move on, even if they are in safe Republican districts, if they want to remain relevant.
“It won’t die overnight,” Marson said of election denials. “It will die eventually. It just won’t be overnight.”
Pearson had harsher words for candidates who can’t let go of the 2020 election.
“I would also advise them to see a therapist,” Pearson said. “If they are still this rage-filled about conspiracy theories levied in 2020, it’s time to go talk to someone.”
Candidates who claimed that Joe Biden did not win in 2020 include:
Statewide candidates
Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake lost.
Secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem lost.
Attorney general candidate Abe Hamadeh; race undecided.
Arizona Corporation Commission candidate Kevin Thompson won.
Congressional candidates
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters lost.
Republican congressional candidate in the 1st District David Schweikert won.
Republican congressional candidate in the 3rd District Eli Crane won.
Republican congressional candidate in the 3rd District Jeffrey Zink lost.
Republican congressional candidate and incumbent in the 5th District Andy Biggs won.
Republican congressional candidate in the 7th District Luis Pozzolo lost.
Republican congressional candidate and incumbent in the 8th District Debbie Lesko won unchallenged.
Republican congressional candidate and incumbent in the 9th District Paul Gosar won unchallenged.
Arizona Legislature candidates
Republican state Senate Legislative District 5 candidate Sonny Borrelli won unchallenged.
Republican state Senate Legislative District 7 candidate Wendy Rogers won.
Republican state Senate Legislative District 10 candidate David Farnsworth won.
Republican state Senate Legislative District 15 candidate Jake Hoffman won.
Republican state Senate Legislative District 27 candidate Anthony Kern won.
Republican state Senate Legislative District 29 candidate Janae Shamp won.
Republican state House Legislative District 13 candidate Liz Harris, leading for one of two seats but got fewer votes than incumbent Democratic Rep. Jennifer Pawlik.
Republican state House Legislative District 29 candidate Austin Smith won one of two seats but got fewer votes than Republican Steve Montenegro.
Republican state House House Legislative District 30 candidate John Gillette won unchallenged.