Arizona AG race is one of the closest

Mayes leads by about 650 votes over Hamadeh

The more votes that are counted, the tighter it gets.

Arizona’s attorney general race is one of the closest statewide races ever in the Grand Canyon State and is the only major contest that doesn’t yet have a winner called.

Out of approximately 2.5 million ballots cast, Democrat Kris Mayes leads the attorney general’s race by about 650 votes over Republican Abe Hamadeh as of Saturday afternoon.

That’s a difference of about 0.026 percentage points, and far within the margin of a 0.5 percent point or less difference that initiates a recount.

The results in the attorney general race are so close, analysts say, because of the down-ballot nature of the race and that voters did not link Hamadeh to Trump and election denialism in the same way they did with other Republican candidates who ultimately were unsuccessful.

That’s despite Trump’s endorsement of Hamadeh, who has said Joe Biden didn’t legitimately win Arizona in 2020.

Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett said the only general election race he recalls coming this close was Proposition 112 in 2010, which would have moved up the signature deadline for ballot measures by two months.

Out of the approximately 1.6 million votes cast, the ballot measure lost by 194. It went to a recount, but the outcome of the race did not change.

According to Brooks Simpson, foundation professor of history at Arizona State University, “you can’t get closer” than the 1916 gubernatorial race.

Back then, Republican Thomas E. Campbell was initially declared the winner.

After a recount that took almost a year, Democratic Gov. George W.P. Hunt had 43 more votes.

The only other statewide race to go to a recount was the 1994 Democratic primary for Senate, between then-U.S. Rep. Sam Coppersmith and then-Secretary of State Richard Mahoney.

Coppersmith won by 132 votes.

Fewer voters weigh in on attorney general’s race

The race between former Corporation Commissioner Mayes and former prosecutor Hamadeh was contentious, and the contempt the candidates have toward one another was evident, particularly on social media.

Hamadeh, a political newbie, dealt with multiple unpleasant revelations about his past, while Mayes dealt with fewer such bumps on the campaign trail.

Major issues in the race included abortion and election integrity.

Mayes has led for most of the vote counting, except for a brief period in the afternoon of Nov. 9. During this time, Hamadeh claimed victory. However, Mayes retook the lead several hours later.

Mayes’ lead has shrunk for most of the week. On Nov. 12, she led by about 20,000 votes. On Nov. 17, her lead slipped to as low as 55.

In a prepared statement, Mayes said, “As we wait for these final ballots to be tabulated and released, we already know state law will require a recount of this race. As I’ve said many times before, I believe in our election system. I value our hardworking elections officials, poll workers and volunteers and am thankful to all those who took their time to vote.”

Hamadeh said he would comment sometime later.

One of the reasons for the race’s closeness is that Mayes received fewer votes than the other Democratic candidates higher on the ballot who won their races. As of Saturday afternoon, Mayes had about 1.25 million votes. By comparison, incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly received approximately 1.3 million votes in his winning effort. Adrian Fontes garnered 1.3 million votes for secretary of state, and Katie Hobbs received about 1.28 million votes in her gubernatorial race.

About 50,000 more votes were cast in the gubernatorial race compared with the attorney general contest.

Chuck Coughlin, president and CEO of the Phoenix-based consulting firm HighGround Inc., said that was a result of the race having a lower profile than some of the others.

“It’s that down-ballot fallout. In any election, as you get further in the ballot, you get attrition,” Coughlin said, noting that this is particularly true if the decision is difficult.

While down-ballot Republican Treasurer Kimberly Yee got the most votes out of any candidate at 1.38 million, Coughlin says it was an easy decision for voters, who didn’t affiliate Donald Trump and election denialism with her candidacy.

Coughlin said Fontes did not have the same down-ballot problem that Mayes had because of the spotlight on Republican secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem and his position on the 2020 election.

“Fontes didn’t suffer from that because of the election denialism argument, but it wasn’t such a clear narrative in the attorney general’s race. You know, she tried to make that the narrative, but the race just doesn’t get the kind of attention that those other races got.”

Why did Mayes get fewer votes than other Democrats?

Hamadeh was affected by the downballot nature of the race, but not as much as Mayes.

At 1.25 million votes, Hamadeh received approximately 16,600 fewer votes than Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who ultimately lost the election.

However, Hamadeh received about 58,000 more votes than Republican senatorial candidate Blake Masters and about 54,000 more votes than Finchem.

Simpson of ASU also said some of Hamadeh’s results might be a “revenge vote” for Mayes changing parties. She was a registered Republican until 2019.

Doug Cole, a veteran political consultant at HighGround, said trends should have favored Hamadeh in the race.

“When you get in a Republican cycle like this, which has been a less-so Republican cycle, any law enforcement type position … should be a walk-off for the Republican candidate,” he said.

“That has not happened in this cycle. It’s amazing that race has been so competitive.”