Abortion decisive for some voters

Reproductive rights were among key issues for midterm elections

Cassandra Lopez had two words on her mind as she cast her ballot in the heart of Phoenix on Election Day.

The 27-year-old bank employee was one of many downtown office workers who spent their break voting at the Footprint Center. Outside the arena, Phoenix Suns and Mercury-themed “I Voted” stickers were in hot demand.

Lopez, who lives in Glendale and isn’t a basketball fan, sported a red, white and blue Maricopa County sticker as she talked about the issues most important to her.

“Abortion rights,” she said, without skipping a beat.

“I think women should be able to choose what they do with their bodies, between them and their doctors,” she said. “And there shouldn’t be any criminal penalties for that decision in any state.”

Eight days later, Lopez’s pick for governor, Democrat Katie Hobbs, declared victory over her Republican opponent, Kari Lake, and in her first public speech talked about abortion rights.

In the purple border state of Arizona, hit hard by inflation and fertile ground for the spread of former President Donald Trump’s election lies, myriad issues took center stage. Election integrity played a starring role, fueled by Lake’s national rise as a polished version of Trump and Arizona’s status as a litmus test of his waning influence.

And in the first election since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion become a campaign constant alongside immigration and the economy, featuring heavily in Democratic advertising.

“It may not have been my choice, but it could be your choice.”

South Phoenix voter Cotina Gordon

Speaking about abortion rights

Political analysts say abortion was not top of mind for everyone, and among the major issues rather than a standout. But it was big enough to make a difference in a field of tight results.

Lopez certainly wasn’t alone in considering abortion access a priority.

Veterinarian Melanie Peters, 63, said it was among the things she felt Republicans wanted to strip away.

“Some of the things they’re taking away, they don’t matter to me now at my age,” she said. “But when I was younger, I feel it would have made a big difference to me.”

In south Phoenix, Cotina Gordon said she feared women would resort to dangerous, underground procedures if abortion care was not readily available.

The 50-year-old mortgage loan processor said she taught her own daughter that abortion was not a form of birth control. But there were genuine reasons to need one, she added, and keeping it legal was crucial.

“It may not have been my choice,” Gordon said, “but it could be your choice.”

Legal chaos followed court decision

Dr. Gabriella Goodrick, who has provided abortion care in Arizona since 1999 through her clinic, Camelback Family Planning, has had to close her doors twice this year.

The first time was after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, and the second in September, when a judge ruled a territorial-era ban on abortion could be enforced in Arizona. Both times, she and her staff had to call women and cancel their appointments.

“It was horrible,” she said. “They were expecting to get the medical care that they needed. And we had to tell them that the state of Arizona had banned abortion, and there was nothing we could do.”

They tried to help patients go out of state, Goodrick said. “But the bottom line is, it was quite difficult.”

Since Roe fell, some states have doubled down on creating safe havens for women seeking abortions, while others have decisively outlawed abortion care. But in Arizona, a massive question mark has lingered over the legality of abortion.

The confusion comes from two conflicting laws. One, which dates back to 1864 before Arizona became a state, would ban abortions altogether, with exceptions only to save the pregnant person’s life. The other, signed earlier this year by Gov. Doug Ducey, would ban abortions after 15 weeks of gestation, with limited exceptions for medical emergencies.

Neither provide exemptions for pregnancies caused by rape or incest and both seek to prosecute abortion providers, not women who have abortions.

Abortion rights providers and state Attorney General Mark Brnovich are currently locked in a court challenge in Pima County over whether the 1864 ban applies. In response to a second lawsuit in Maricopa County, Brnovich agreed he won’t enforce the ban until 45 days after a ruling in the Pima County case, meaning abortions up to 15 weeks are currently available.

Amid the uncertainty, Goodrick was watching the midterms carefully, hoping for candidates who would not only allow her to keep practicing, but also expand access to abortion care.

Abortion wasn’t literally on the ballot in Arizona, but voters still faced a stark choice. Broadly, Democratic candidates in top-of-ballot and attorney races pledged to repeal the 1864 ban, expand access to abortion and refuse to prosecute anyone involved in abortion care, while many of their Republican opponents supported the criminalization of abortion.

How much did it matter?

“I think abortion was a significant issue in this race, but it wasn’t the only issue,” said Paul Bentz, an Arizona pollster and senior vice president in research and strategy at the consulting firm Highground.

It appeared to be a “significant force” in several races, he said, including the Senate showdown between Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters.

Highground polling suggested a significant portion of Arizonans did not support criminalization. The state’s influential independent bloc appeared to skew Democrat this election, Bentz added, but that was likely due to a number of issues.

“Election integrity being one, banning early voting being another one, abortion and reproductive rights being another significant one in which Republicans found themselves on the wrong side of these key swing audiences that make a difference in this election,” Bentz said.

Abortion waxed and waned as a campaign issue, Bentz said, at times overshadowed by election integrity and the economy.

“But at the end of the day,” he added, “what we saw is that the candidates who are more on the side of criminalization, they were not successful.”

To Stan Barnes, the president of Copper State Consulting Group, abortion was important but a second-tier issue.

“I think the first tier was, ‘Are you or are you not as a voter excited about the rhetoric coming out of the Republican nominee’s mouth about the 2020 stolen election?’” he said.

“Beyond that, most everything else is at the second level.”

But Barnes, who formerly served in both the Arizona House and Senate as a Republican legislator, said abortion was still important in an election where every vote mattered.

“My basic premise is when the election is so close, every meaningful thing is magnified,” he said. “And the prochoice, pro-life debate is a meaningful thing.”

How it mattered, race by race

The issue of abortion rights was particularly significant in certain races, Bentz said.

Senate victor Kelly used his hefty war chest on advertisements that painted Masters as an extremist on abortion, using the Trump-backed candidate’s own past stances against him.

Bentz also cited the race in Legislative District 4, in which Democrat Christine Marsh, a former teacher, defeated Republican state Sen. Nancy Barto, who sponsored the 15-week abortion ban bill.

In the northeast Valley district, major intersections sprouted red signs with the slogans “BARTO BANS ABORTION” and “NO EXCEPTIONS, JAILS DOCTORS” next to a picture of handcuffs.

In the governor’s race, election integrity and questions of personality and performance often eclipsed other issues.

Hobbs was staunch in her view that abortion should be a decision purely between a woman and her doctor, while Lake was vague about how restrictive she thought Arizona’s law should be.

But races have not uniformly fallen the way of the abortion rights candidate.

In the Maricopa County attorney race, Republican incumbent Rachel Mitchell defeated Democratic opponent Julie Gunningle.

This race is significant because the majority of Arizona’s population and its abortion clinics are in Maricopa County, and its top attorney makes decisions about who and how to prosecute.

Gunningle put front and center that she would not prosecute anyone involved in abortion care, while Mitchell said she would not prosecute women who seek abortions, a relatively meaningless statement given that Arizona’s laws do not criminalize women.

Abortion also loomed large in the race to replace Brnovich as attorney general, where Democrat Kris Mayes and Republican Abe Hamadeh are on a voting knife’s edge in a race that will go to a recount.

Voters simply have less information about these races, Bentz said.

“The other thing about both the attorney general and the county attorney, they’re law enforcement roles,” he said.

“And Arizona has a history of wanting a Republican in that role. The law and order aspect of it sort of outweighed any concerns about abortion enforcement, I’d say.”

Barnes said the issue of abortion appeared to drive turnout for the Democrats, but he did not think it moved that many votes overall or had significantly different effects on the various races.

“I don’t believe the abortion question is the question that is separating some races from others,” Barnes said.

Optimism after a tough year

In her victory speech, Hobbs stressed her commitment to abortion rights.

“I will do everything in my power to repeal the draconian 1864 abortion ban that puts so many women’s lives at risk,” she said.

“I will use every tool at my disposal to restore the reproductive rights that we’ve been guaranteed for the last 50 years. A woman’s medical decision should be between her and her doctor.”

In an interview with The Arizona Republic, she also criticized the 15-week ban, describing it as “too restrictive.”

“The majority of Arizonans support safe, legal abortion, and we need to roll back many of the restrictions that are in place now,” she said.

Hobbs faces a Republican-controlled Legislature and will have to negotiate deals with GOP moderates for any abortion reform.

She can, however, veto any further restrictions.

Her victory has left Goodrick feeling optimistic after a tough year. The doctor believes abortions up to 15 weeks are “secure” in Arizona, but wants to expand access up to 23.6 weeks, like before Roe fell.

Pregnancy is a lot more complicated than having a neat 15 weeks to make a decision, she said.

Some people lack the resources or money to seek abortion care, others receive devastating news about fetal abnormalities and risks to their own health well into their pregnancies, and others genuinely don’t know they are pregnant.

“It’s more common than you think,” Goodrick said.

From the doctor’s perspective, abortion dominated the election. “I think it completely mobilized people to vote,” she said.