US revises up last quarter’s growth

WASHINGTON – Despite high interest rates and chronic inflation, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate from July through September, the government said Wednesday in a healthy upgrade from its initial estimate.

Last quarter’s rise in the U.S. gross domestic product – the economy’s total output of goods and services – followed two straight quarters of contraction. That decline in output had raised fears that the economy might have slipped into a recession in the first half of the year despite a still-robust job market and steady consumer spending.

Since then, though, most signs have pointed to a resilient if slow-moving economy, led by steady hiring, plentiful job openings and low unemployment. Wednesday’s government report showed that the restoration of growth in the July-September period was led by solid gains in exports and consumer spending that was stronger than originally reported.

“Despite higher borrowing costs and prices, household spending – the driver of the economy – appears to be holding, which is a positive development for the near-term outlook,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

It marked the second of three estimates the Commerce Department will provide of economic expansion in the third quarter. In its initial estimate, the department had estimated that the economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate last quarter.

Economists expect the economy to eke out modest 1% annualized growth from October through December, according to a survey of forecasters conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The nation’s manufacturing sector is slowing despite an easing of supply chains that had been backlogged since the economy began rebounding from the pandemic recession two years ago. And inflation is threatening to weaken the crucial holiday shopping period. Retailers say inflation-weary shoppers are shopping cautiously, with many holding out for the most attractive bargains.

But a recession, if likely a mild one, is widely expected in 2023, a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s drive to tame the worst bout of inflation in four decades by aggressively raising interest rates. The Fed has raised its benchmark short-term rate six times this year – including four straight hefty hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point. The central bank is expected to announce an additional half-point hike.