State adds 12,987 new cases, 42 deaths
Reported COVID-19 cases in Arizona last week were similar to the previous week’s relatively high level, and the percentage of tests returning positive for the virus rose to one in four, according to the state’s latest weekly update.
Health officials on Wednesday added 12,987 new COVID-19 cases and 42 new known deaths over the weeklong period ending Nov. 26, slightly below the prior week’s addition and well above the case additions from weeks before that. The past two reports have been the highest weekly case reports since early August.
Case counts are still far below last winter, state data shows. Case numbers in recent months likely are not showing the full picture of infections as many more people have used at-home test kits and may not report positive results to their doctors or county health departments.
Some epidemiologists are predicting another wave of infections this fall and winter. Omicron subvariants that are fueling a rising number of COVID-19 cases in Europe and western Asia have been detected in Arizona, setting the stage for another bump in cases here.
Public health officials and medical providers say the best way for Arizonans to avoid serious illness from the emerging strains is to get the updated COVID-19 booster if eligible. The new bivalent booster is updated with protections against subvariants of the omicron variant and it’s available to people ages 5 and older.
Six of Arizona’s 15 counties were designated as “high” in terms of COVID-19 levels as of Dec. 1, according to guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meaning the CDC recommends people wear face masks indoors in public. “High” counties were Pima, Santa Cruz, Greenlee, Gila, Navajo and Apache. The other nine counties − Maricopa, Pinal, Graham, Cochise, Yuma, La Paz, Yavapai, Coconino and Mohave − were “medium.”
The CDC’s “community level” guidance metrics are based on a county’s COVID-19 hospital bed use, COVID-19 hospital admissions and case rates for the virus over the past week.
Reported cases since the pandemic began are at over 2.3 million. Known deaths in Arizona are over 31,700.
Wednesday marked the 40th of the weekly updates to the state’s data dashboard, instead of daily updates that Arizonans became accustomed to following for the latest data on infections, illnesses and deaths.
The previous week’s update added 13,410 cases and 62 deaths, compared with 10,775 COVID-19 cases and 34 deaths three weeks ago and 7,360 COVID-19 cases and 40 deaths four weeks ago.
This week’s update shows the differences between data reported for the week of Nov. 20-26 and Nov. 13-19.
Health officials say weekly updates match how public health monitors trends and other disease reporting.
Case numbers generally were relatively lower in the past couple of months, and public health experts estimate cases of the highly contagious omicron variant peaked in Arizona around mid-January.
The state data dashboard no longer shows key hospitalization information since Gov. Doug Ducey ended the COVID-19 emergency declaration March 30. State health officials said hospitals are no longer required to report some COVID-19 surveillance data to the state, meaning certain graphs showing weekly hospitalization levels for the disease and bed usage by COVID-19 patients are no longer updated.
At the time that data reporting stopped, hospitalizations for the disease had dropped steadily since late January.
The CDC still reports state hospitalization data for Arizona and showed a 14.3% increase in the seven-day average of COVID-19 hospital admissions during Nov. 21-27 compared with Nov. 14-20. Hospital admissions last week were down 74.4% from the peak seven-day average in early January 2021.
Health officials: Stay up to date on boosters
The number of known deaths in the state was at 31,751 as of Wednesday, after passing 30,000 known deaths in the May 4 update. The state surpassed 25,000 deaths on Jan. 13. Deaths are reported with a four-week lag.
The CDC places Arizona’s overall pandemic death rate since early 2020 as the third-highest nationwide.
The state in December began publicly disclosing data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, and state officials say the data underscores the effectiveness of the vaccine, especially for people up to date on all recommended COVID-19 doses, including boosters.
Data from September show that 42.7% of hospitalizations and 32.1% of COVID-19 deaths were among unvaccinated people, 52.4% of hospitalizations and 60.9% of deaths were among vaccinated but not up-to-date people, and 4.9% of hospitalizations and 7% of deaths were among people up to date on vaccination. (Most Arizonans are vaccinated.)
State health officials previously broke down hospitalization and death data for unvaccinated people and people with and without boosters, but said they changed the format in July to show the impact of staying up to date with a second booster shot plus future vaccine recommendations.
Unvaccinated people ages 5 and older had an 8.6 times greater risk of hospitalization and 6.5 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 in September compared with people who were up to date on their vaccination. Unvaccinated people were 8.7 times more likely to be hospitalized and 7.2 times more likely to die from COVID-19 compared with people who were vaccinated but not up to date, per the state’s September analysis.
“Stronger protection from hospitalization and death is seen in those who are up-to-date on COVID-19 vaccinations,” interim state health Director Don Herrington wrote in a blog post.
As of Oct. 12, there had been 2,308 breakthrough deaths in fully vaccinated individuals with the primary series, according to state health officials’ preliminary data, which works out to a breakthrough death rate of about 0.05% among all fully vaccinated people with the primary series. (The August breakthrough number state health officials previously provided was incorrect, officials said.)
Health officials emphasize the best protection against severe illness from COVID-19 is to remain up to date with recommended vaccinations, including CDC guidance that people ages 5 years and older receive one updated bivalent booster if it has been at least two months since their last COVID-19 vaccine dose, either an original booster or the primary series.
Case rates and death reports
Contagious omicron subvariants, particularly BA.5, are contributing to many of the cases in Arizona, according to results from sequencing labs. Sequencing data from the Translational Genomics Research Institute, or TGen, show an increase in recent weeks of “Omicron other,” though most recently BA.5 appeared dominant.
Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it’s measured. It was high in the winter months, a sign of more community spread. Then it was much lower but began climbing upward in April, then back downward, and now again on an upswing.
Arizona’s percent positivity for COVID-19 testing was at 3% for the week of April 3, and went up in subsequent weeks, reaching a high of 29% for the week of July 10. It was 10-11% through September, 10% for the week of Oct. 2, 11% for the week of Oct. 9, 13% for the week of Oct. 16, 13% for the week of Oct. 23, 17% for the week of Oct. 30, 21% for the week of Nov. 6, 24% for the week of Nov. 13 and 25% for the week of Nov. 20. The percentages are for all diagnostic tests conducted, rather than for unique individuals tested.
A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease’s spread is under control.
The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.
The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 435 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC, putting it third in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 324 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC.
New York City has the highest death rate, at 513 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Mississippi at 437.
Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.
Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks before because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.