Predictions for each Open state boys basketball tourney game
might be the most exciting state basketball tournament in the history of the Arizona Interscholastic Association -- the 32-team Open Division. Both boys and girls are entering new territory with this first-time Open.
It’s the equivalent of March Madness on the Arizona high school level. And it starts Wednesday when gyms could be packed with a renewed energy that creates a buzz felt on the court and brings the best out of players with the chance for upsets.
The Arizona Republic is taking a close look at each of the boys basketball firstround games with predictions on who advances to Friday’s second round. Remember, those teams that lose in the first two rounds still have life. The AIA will reseed the Open eight, and, after Friday’s 6A, 5A and 4A play-in games, those three big-school conferences.
So how does this work?
If, let’s say, four teams from a conference falls out of the Open, the eight playin winners and those four will make 12. But to make it a 16-team bracket, losers in the play-in games with the highest rankings, will be called back to play in the conference tournament. And, let’s say there are nine teams from a conference that falls out of the Open, that would create a 17-team bracket. Then, there would be a play-in game between the 16 and 17 seeds and that winner would play at the No. 1 seed in that conference tournament in the first round.
Let’s predict the 16 games in the boys Open’s first round (all games are 7 p.m., at the higher seed’s court):
No. 32 Vail Cienega (5A, 20-6) at No. 1 Gilbert Perry (6A, 25-1)
Cinderella, time? I don’t think so. But this isn’t a Cienega team that Perry can expect to roll up early. First-year coach Jason Apodaca’s team went 9-0 at home and finished the regular season strong, led by seniors Ben Kmak and Mason Tippett. “We are so excited for the Open and hopefully a long run in the 5A state tournament,” said Apodaca, who seems to know his early fate here. Perry is among the top 30 teams in the nation and feature two 5-star players in sophomore Koa Peat and senior Cody Williams. They’re both 6-foot-8 and were the catalysts to Perry’s first 6A state title last year.
Perry 75, Cienega 54
No. 17 Mesa Mountain View (6A, 17-10) at No. 16 Phoenix Pinnacle (6A, 14-12)
Great game with a pair of dynamic duos: Pinnacle’s Bryce Ford and Ashton Reese and Mountain View’s Brigg Wolfe and Nate Bogle. Last week, in an overtime win over Boulder Creek, Ford and Reese combined to score 75 of their ream’s 97 points. Mountain View’s offense runs through Wolfe, a point guard, and Bogle, a wing. They both can score from outside and inside. Two top coaches face off in Pinnacle’s Charile Wilde and Mountain View’s Andy Johnson. Pinnacle gave Perry its only loss and split with a tough Liberty team. Mountain View went 10-0 to win its region. Something’s gotta give. Expect this to come down to the final possession with an electric crowd on hand.
Prediction: Pinnacle 63, Mountain View 61
No. 24 Phoenix Sandra Day O’Connor (6A, 16-10) at No. 9 Goodyear Millennium (5A, 23-3)
This is a great matchup. O’Connor has played well agaisnt good 6A teams, such as Brophy Prep (losing 59-51) and Pinnacle (a 72-67 win). Millennium’s only loss to an Arizona team was early in the year to Brophy in overtime. This team has grown by leaps and bounds with freshmen Cameron Holmes and Brayden Barrett and sophomores J.T. Amundsen and Kingston Tosi. There could be early nerves, but expect Millennium to pull away late.
Prediction: Millennium 67, O’Connor
55
Prediction:
No. 25 Tucson (6A, 23-3) at No. 8 Peoria Liberty (6A, 20-6)
That 71-60 loss to Ironwood Ridge in the last regular-season game caused Tucson to fall. But the Badgers wouldn’t have gotten a home game due to its schedule that included losses to nonOpen teams Mesa Dobson and Tucson Salpointe Catholic. Liberty is healthy now, and dangerous, a legit Open champion contender, especially with Caden Hunter lighting it up from outside (20 points a game).
Prediction: Liberty 84, Tucson 61
No. 28 Glendale Cactus (4A, 21-4) at No. 5 Glendale Ironwood (5A, 21-5)
This might be the most intriguing of all of the first-round games. That’s because all eyes will be on Cactus junior 7-footer Bradey Henige and how he will do against 6-5 Julius Williams, a force in the middle. Henige has been a double-double machine, scoring and rebounding in double figures in every game this season. But this is a strong Ironwood defense. It has played one of the more demanding schedules in the state. Cactus may need much more than Henige to get through, because you can figure Jordan Augustine will come up with a plan to try to contain Henige, who averages
Prediction: Ironwood 64, Cactus 57
No. 21 Waddell Canyon View (5A, 19-6) at No. 12 Anthem Boulder Creek (6A, 18-7)
Canyon View coach Randy Lavender led Centennial to the 5A championship last year. What he’s done in his first year at Canyon View has been remarkable. And it is has score 100-plus points in its last two games. But that came after losing by 15 to Millennium. Boulder Creek is one of the better 6A team that reached the semifinals last year. The tandem of point guard Rowan McKenzie and 6-8 guard Bhesania Andrew makes Boulder Creek a tough out, even though McKenzie missed 10 games with an injury.
Prediction: Boulder Creek 78, Canyon View 70
No. 20 Mesa (6A, 20-6) at No. 13 Scottsdale Desert Mtn. (5A, 22-4)
Desert Mountain has the talent to run the Open table with freshman guards Kaden and Kalek House leading the way. They can go on long scoring stretches with the speed and skills and shooting touch. Mesa will have to try to work the 35-second shot clock to minimized Desert Mountain possessions. Point guard Kota Benson will need a big night to keep Mesa going in the Open. But this Desert Mountain team has too much talent to lose now.
Prediction: Desert Mountain 67, Mesa
59
No. 29 Tucson Sahuaro (4A, 20-5) at No. 4 Gilbert Highland (6A, 24-2)
Sahuaro is the only team to beat No. 2 American Leadership Gilbert North, a 7765 decision on Dec. 21. Highland is a team that can reach the Open final when Noah Peterson (18 points a game) and Brock Knollmiller (13 points a game) are both on. Coach Todd Fazio has done a remarkable job rebuilding this program the last three years. This is the Hawks’ year.
Prediction: Highland 58, Sahuaro 45
No. 30 Tucson Catalina Foothills (5A, 18-6) at No. 3 Peoria (4A, 23-3)
Peoria will need senior point guard
Andrew Camacho healhy to get into the Open eight. But, even without Camacho for much of the season, Peoria has been great, behind Caden Bass and Calvin Windley. This shouldn’t be a problem for Peoria.
Prediction: Peoria 78, Catalina Foothills 55
No. 19 Phoenix North Canyon (5A, 19-3) at No. 14 Scottsdale Notre Dame Prep (5A, 21-5)
Notre Dame is coming off a close loss to Millennium. North Canyon is having an historic season under coach Michael O’Gunn. It’s an athletic, fearless bunch led by King Turner and Wyatt MacKay. Notre Dame can score and defend with the best of them, led by Athony Batson Jr., and Brennan Peterson and Bryce Quinet. Defense leads to offense for both teams. This should be one of the more competitive games.
Prediction: Notre Dame 71, North Canyon 68
No. 22 Peoria Centennial (5A, 16-9) at No. 11 Chandler Basha (6A, 22-4)
This might be closer than it appears on paper. Don’t count out any David Gracecoached team in high-stakes games. Centennial won the 5A title last year. But this is a tall task against a young but talented Basha team that lost its games to Perry (twice) and Brophy Prep (twice, both close games).