Bracket breakdown: Predicting big schools
It’s all set. The 32-team Arizona high school Open Division boy high school basketball tournament is into the final eight. And now the 6A, 5A, 4A brackets are out, along with the small conferences, 3A through 1A.
Who’s got what it takes to go all the way? What are the odds of a double-digit seed holding up the gold ball in the end?
Let’s break down the big-school brackets. Monday, I will break down the 3A, 2A and 1A brackets:
Open Division
This might be the greatest invention in Arizona Interscholastic Association history. Thirty-two teams. Lots of double-dig seeds getting into the final eight. But it’s championship or bust for defending 6A champion Gilbert Perry. And the way it played Friday night in an 8734 rout of Phoenix Pinnacle, nobody, it seems, is getting in its way. Unless it somehow loses that mojo and Koa Peat and Cody Williams sleepwalk through next Saturday’s quarterfinal against No. 8 Peoria Liberty.
Don’t sleep on Liberty. Liberty (22-6) has always been that team that could give Perry a legit shot at upending the Pumas (27-1). Mark Wood is a great coach who knows how to get everybody in sync and he’s got them healthy, all ready to go. A dynamic Liberty team led by Caden Hunter and Ky Green are capable of pulling the upset.
The rest of the quarters are exceptional with No. 13 Desert Mountain and the fabulous freshmen House twins (Kaden and Kalek) playing at No. 5 Glendale Ironwood, No. 14 Scottsdale Notre Dame Prep at No. 11 Chandler Basha, and No. 18 Phoenix St. Mary’s and its Dynamic Duo of Styles Phipps and Caspian Jones at No. 10 Phoenix Sunnslope, a great defensive team that doesn’t realize how young it is under coach Ray Portela.
There is a chance that three doubledigit seeds could advance to the Open semifinals. Wow. But it’s no surprise St. Mary’s and Desert Mountain are there. They’ve got dynamos on their teams. And No. 2 American Leadership Academy Gilbert North wasn’t playing a very strong schedule since the beginning of December, which might have created a false sense of security. St. Mary’s, despite barely being over .500, built this path by playing the hardest schedule in the state, stacking up national games.
St. Mary’s is the only 4A team to get to the eight. Perry, Liberty, Sunnyslope Basha from 6A teams take up half of the remaining field.
My pick to win it is Perry.
But who will face the Pumas in the end?
I’ll take St. Mary’s. But Sunnyslope is a sleeper team.
6A Conference
Because teams that fall out of the Open in the first two rounds go into the conference tournamentrs in 6A, 5A and 4A, there is one more play-in left in this conference: No. 17 Mesa Red Mountain
at No. 16 Tucson Rincon University on Tuesday. But this looks like the top two seeds -- No. 1 Highland and No. 2 Brophy Prep -- will hold up to the end.
Pinnacle might have looked like it didn’t show up against Perry. But Pinnacle has always bounced back big this year, so that’s my dark horse. It would have to grind through the top bracket that includes Highland and maybe a rematch with Mesa Mountain View in the quarterfinals.
The wild card is Phoenix Sandra Day O’Connor, the No. 7 seed that has pulled off some big wins late in the season and took Millennium into overtime before losing in the first round of the Open tournament.
Anthem Boulder Creek is vulnerable as a 3 seed if it doesn’t have point guard Rowan McKenzie healthy to go.
My pick to win it: Brophy Prep, due to the tougher schedule it has played over Highland.
5A Conference
This is much more wide open than 6A
with No. 1 Campo Verde not a sure bet to reach the final. No. 2 Millennium, despite starting two freshmen and two sophomores, might have a better path to the final and don’t be surprised if double-digit seeds get into the semifinals.
No. 11 Sunrise Mountain is capable of beating No. 6 Central in the first round. No. 14 Buckeye beating No. 3 North Canyon in the first round wouldn’t be a shocker, although North Canyon will use that Open experience, I’m sure, to make a run.
Mountain Pointe is a 12 seed in the top bracket and beat Campo Verde, albeit on a miracle shot, this year. Mountain Pointe will have a tough opener against No. 5 Peoria Centennial. And No. 4 Waddell Canyon View, which just lost by two to Ironwood in the Open 16, can pull some magic to reach the final in coach Randy Lavender’s first year after he led Centennial to the 5A title last year.
My picks to reach the final: Canyon View against Millennium in an all-West side thrill ride.
My pick to win it all: Canyon View in overtime.
4A Conference
American Leadership Gilbert North is the No. 1 seed, no doubt. But No. 16 Surprise Paradise Honors, even during a down year, won’t make it easy for the Eagles to advance.
Can Glendale Cactus recover from the 30-something-point drubbing it took from Ironwood in the first round of the Open? The Cobras are the 6 seed, ready to host Pueblo on Thursday.
Peoria is the No. 2 seed after falling out of the Open in the second round. It will be hungry to go the distance, opening at home Thursday against No. 15 Chandler Seton Catholic.
No. 5 Gilbert Mesquite and No. 8 Deer Valley are my wild card. The top half of the bracket is grinder, but I’ll go with ALA Gilbert North, led by sophomore guard Dylan Novak, a clutch performer in big games.
In the end, however, I believe it will be Peoria, led by its Big 3 of Andrew Camacho, Calvin Windley and Caden Bass, holding up the gold ball and cutting down the nets.