D-Backs buying time, hope with Carroll deal
By giving outfielder Corbin Carroll an eight-year, $111 million deal, an agreement that potentially buys out his first three years of free agency, the Diamondbacks are placing a major bet on a largely inexperienced player. That makes it something of a risky gamble.
But, in another sense, it probably does not change much in regard to the Diamondbacks’ fortunes: Whether this money was guaranteed or not, whether the years of control were added, the club already needed Carroll to be a star.
More than anything, this extension feels like the Diamondbacks are doubling down. They already were banking on Carroll playing an outsized role in opening their next window of contention. If he isn’t the star they expect, it becomes harder to envision that window opening all that wide anytime soon. If he is, they have a cornerstone to build around for almost a full decade.
Carroll is a player they love in every sense: his ability and tools, his raw production and style of play, his baseball acumen and intellectual curiosity, his competitiveness and work ethic, his discipline and maturity.
If they were ever going to do a deal like this, this is the player with whom to do it.
More than likely, the Diamondbacks viewed this spring as their one and only opportunity to secure this many years of Carroll’s future. If they had waited — which would have been a reasonable, prudent approach; Carroll has played only 32 games in the majors — they likely expected it would have cost them exponentially.
That is, they believed Carroll absolutely would deliver on his potential, and that his price would only go up with every passing month. For comparison, the Seattle Mariners extended star outfielder Julio Rodriguez almost five months into his rookie season. The price tag: $210 million. The Tampa Bay Rays gave shortstop Wander Franco a $182 million deal after he had played 70 major league games.
There is no question that Carroll, 22, is unproven. His deal is the largest ever given to a player with less than 100 days of major league service time, eclipsing the $70 million deal the Atlanta Braves gave center fielder Michael Harris II last year.
But Carroll also is someone whom nearly all evaluators see as a high-certainty type of player. Scouts might not be able to say for sure whether he will be closer to an above-average player, an All-Star or an MVP type, but they do believe — almost universally — that he will not be a bust, so long as he can stay healthy, of course.
The contract, of course, makes sense from Carroll’s perspective, too. He assures himself of not just life-changing money, but the kind of financial security that could set up his family for generations. The deal includes a club option for 2031 worth $28 million and as well as another $20 million in escalators that could bring the total value to $154 million.
Carroll also has a chance for another bite at the apple, so to speak: He could hit the market again after either his age-29 (2030) or age-30 season (2031), which could position him to get another massive deal as a free agent.
By then, the Diamondbacks are hoping Carroll will have helped them ascend into a perennial contender. With young catcher Gabriel Moreno joining Carroll following an offseason trade, as well as top prospects Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones behind them, the Diamondbacks believe they have the kind of young core that could allow them to compete with the big dogs in the National League.
The deal is the second largest guarantee in franchise history behind the $206.5 million the club gave right-hander Zack Greinke after the 2015 season. That was a free-agent deal. This is the largest extension the club has ever handed out, beating the $76 million they gave second baseman Ketel Marte last year.
In committing this much to Carroll, they are signaling that they are comfortable making him the next face of the franchise. They are hoping he holds the title as ably as Paul Goldschmidt. And they are hoping they can do a better job of capitalizing on his presence than they did with Goldschmidt.
But this deal is not so much the placing of a new bet. It is the club pushing more into the center of the table. If they are wrong about Carroll, they were in trouble already. If they're right, they are looking even better than before.