Arctic may lose its summer ice by 2030s
Summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean might be a thing of the past by the 2030s, no matter what we do to curb emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming, an international study released Tuesday suggests.
In fact, an ice-free Arctic each September is likely already “baked” into Earth’s climate system, according to study lead author Seung-Ki Min of the Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea.
“We found ice-free conditions will occur even in a low-emission scenario,” Min told USA TODAY. Min and his coauthors used computer models to predict what will happen to the Arctic as the Earth’s temperature rises over the next several decades.
The new study, published in the peerreviewed British journal Nature Communications, adjusted the models, scaling them based on data collected yearround. The authors said their results show emissions are having “profound impacts” on the Arctic and that previous computer modeling studies have “significantly” underestimated the trend in sea ice decline in the region.
Sea ice is frozen ocean water that melts each summer, then refreezes each winter. Sea ice in the Arctic has been declining for years, particularly during September, when it generally reaches its lowest coverage of the year. And previous international research projected it would be virtually ice-free by late in the century if higher greenhouse gas emissions continued unabated.
Arctic sea ice has been declining rapidly throughout all seasons in recent decades, and there has been an increased decline since 2000, the study said.
Sea ice affects Arctic communities and wildlife such as polar bears and walruses, and it helps regulate the planet’s temperature by influencing the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean.
The human impact on declining sea ice in the Arctic can be seen throughout the year and can be largely attributed to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of oil, gas and coal. The contributions of aerosols and natural factors (such as solar and volcanic activity) were found to be much lower, according to the study.
The authors project that the Arctic may be sea-ice-free in September by 2030–2050 under all emission scenarios.