How ASU can beat Cal for first Pac-12 win
Arizona State and California will square off at noon Saturday, with both teams looking for their first Pac-12 victory, with each upended by a nationally ranked foe in last week’s first full slate of conference games.
Injuries remain a concern for the Sun Devils with 10 players still out, most of whom have been sidelined for multiple weeks.
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham has much respect for the coaching staff the Sun Devils will be facing.
“These guys are so sound. I think their coaches do a phenomenal job defensively, and they’ve been there for a while. Everything is in their arsenal, and they know exactly what their counter-punches are,” Dillingham said. “They know if they’re getting this, they’re gonna counter with this. They do a great job of not doing it at halftime. They counter-punch middrive. So if you think you’re gonna get them with something, and you’re just gonna keep rolling it out the whole drive, you’re delusional. You gotta be ready for their counter. I think that’s the chess match of this week.”
Let’s take a look at the matchup:
Arizona State (1-3, 0-1) at California (2-2, 0-1)
Time/site: Saturday, Noon
TV: Pac-12 Network (J.B. Long, Shane Vereen). Radio: Arizona Sports 98.7 FM.
Last time they played: ASU defeated the then-No. 15 Bears, 24-17, in Berkeley in 2019.
Series history: Cal holds a slim 19-18 advantage although ASU has won three of the last four including the most recent meeting in 2019. The last win by the Bears over ASU came in by a 48-46 score in 2015 in Berkeley.
Coaching matchup
ASU: Kenny Dillingham (first year). At 33, Dillingham is the youngest head coach at an FBS school. He served as offensive coordinator at Oregon last season.
California: Justin Wilcox (seventh year, 32-38) is regarded as one of the better coaches in the conference, so much so that was rumored to have been the favorite for the Oregon job the last time it was open but he turned it down. Wilcox, 46, had previously served as linebackers coach at Cal under Jeff Tedford from 2003 to 2005 and was a defensive coordinator at various schools from 2006 to 2015, one reason Cal has traditionally excelled more on defense than offense.
Storyline
Both teams are coming off losses to ranked foes in the conference openers, ASU to USC and Cal to Washington. This could be both teams’ best chance for a win in the foreseeable future: Cal’s next five games are against Oregon State, Utah, USC, Oregon and Washington State, all of whom are nationally ranked. ASU has coming up Colorado, Washington, Washington State, Utah, UCLA and Oregon, all of whom are or were ranked (Colorado and UCLA dropped out this
week).
ASU and Cal both have had uncertainty at quarterback due to injuries. Trenton Bourguet will start for ASU this week after last week’s starter, Drew Pyne, was banged up Saturday. This will be the third change in as many weeks for ASU, which started Bourguet in Week 3 after Jaden Rashada went down, only to have Bourguet then sustain a sprained ankle that sidelined him for a week.
Meanwhile, Cal uses both redshirt sophomores Sam Jackson (transfer from TCU) and Ben Finley (transfer from North Carolina State), the latter having been injured last Saturday. Both have played in all four games and their numbers are similar.
This could also be the last meeting between the schools for a while, with ASU headed to the Big 12 and Cal moving to the ACC, both effective next season.
Arizona State will win if . . .
1. The offensive line can keep its quarterback upright: The Sun Devils have given up an astounding 17 sacks in four games, eight coming last week. That’s been a factor in the flood of quarterback injuries. Bourguet is the better QB choice than Pyne in playing behind this line because he is noted for a quick release and the ability to make faster decisions.
2. The Sun Devils can adapt to the challenges of playing on the road and early: This is the first road game for Dillingham and his new coaching staff. It’s also the first early game with all four previous games starting at 7 or later so they’ll be establishing a routine for an earlier road game. Sometimes players adapt and sometimes they don’t. Time will tell how this plays out.
3. The offense can continue to evolve: ASU’s offense showed signs of life last week, totaling 353 yards against the best opponent it has faced this far. Dillingham
said this week it was a sign of progress and improvement but he is expecting more. The Sun Devils did a better job of getting the ball to their playmakers, thus the improved results. They need to remain on an upward trajectory to able to compete against the teams remaining on their schedule.
California will win if . . .
1. It keeps getting takeaways: Cal leads the conference in takeaways with 11 — six interceptions and five fumble recoveries. That shouldn’t be surprising because the Bears have always excelled more on defense than offense. Ten different players have come up with a turnover; the only player with multiple takeaways is junior corner Nohl Williams, who has two interceptions. Cal ranks 22nd out of 131 FBS teams in turnover margin.
2. It can get its special teams situated: The Bears have changed placekickers with freshman Mateen Bhaghani replacing sophomore Michael Luckhurst after the latter was just 3-for-9 on field goals (0-for-5 from beyond the 39) with three missed extra points over the first four games. He missed two of those PATs last Saturday against the Huskies and Luckhurst was brought in late, making his attempt on Cal’s last score.
3. It can run the ball: With uncertainty at quarterback the Bears would best be served relying on the run and it has a quality back in Jaydn Ott, who is averaging 102 yards per game. Last year as a freshman he ran for 897 yards and eight touchdowns, with 46 catches for another 321 yards and three scores. He has done that with Cal boasting a very average offensive line.
Personnel notes
Arizona State: OL Ben Coleman, OL Emmit Bohle, DB Montana Warren and QB Jaden Rashada, QB Drew Pyne, OL
Isaia Glass, OL Max Iheanachor, RB DeCarlos Brooks, RB, George Hart, WR Jordyn Tyson, DL Clayton Smith are out injured. The only one of those who played last Saturday was Pyne and he got hurt, thus the change at quarterback this week.
This game marks the return to Cal of four players who played for the Bears last year although two of those, Brooks and Coleman, aren’t expected to play due to injuries. The others are placekicker Dario Longhetto and long snapper Slater Zellers.
They said it
“The focus level and they see a little bit of success, it’s human nature when you taste success that you want more. So I definitely think they built upon that. Now, we’re down significantly up front and some other positions so we couldn’t get the rep count you want going into a game week so we’re going to be a little bit limited in terms of calls as opposed to normal weeks just because you can’t run things in a game that haven’t practiced.”
—ASU coach Kenny Dillingham on building off the offense success in last week’s game
“They really do try to mold their offense around both quarterbacks. You really gotta have, not necessarily different plans for them, but different answers for them. They’re both very different players. I just gotta be aware when one’s in the game, or both are in the game at the same time.”
—ASU defensive coordinator Brian Ward on Cal’s use of two quarterbacks
By the numbers
1 — Turnovers forced by ASU this season, a fumble recovery by LB Tate Romney last week. That’s the fewest by any team in the conference.
6 —Players on the Cal roster from Arizona. They are sophomore QB Ben Finley (Paradise Valley), sophomore linebacker Hunter Barth (Queen Creek), freshman long snapper David Bird (Sandra Day O’Connor), freshman offensive lineman Nick Morrow (Flagstaff), junior offensive lineman Brayden Rohme (Perry) and junior defensive lineman Brett Johnson (Desert Vista).
114 — Yards after the catch by ASU tight end Jalin Conyers, good for seventh among all FBS tight ends despite him missing a game and a half due to injuries. Also, his 42 yards after contact are 12th among FBS tight ends.
232 — Total yards Cameron Skattebo accounted for last week. The ASU standout rushed for 111 yards on 20 carries, caught four passes for 79 yards and completed two passes for 42 yards.
Who will win and why
Cal 27, Arizona State 24: This is one of those games that could go either way. Cal has traditionally relied on its defense which is something ASU has had to do lately as well. Injuries are still a factor, particularly on offense for ASU which had to rely on some unconventional offensive calls to keep last week’s game close. The Bears get a slight edge because they’re playing at home and because of its defense which has done a good job generating takeaway.