Busy hurricane season expected for this year
All early indications are that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be a busy one.
The combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures are expected to bring an above-average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, which consists of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but storms – including hurricanes – have formed much earlier than the official start of the season.
Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1.
The only years a tropical cyclone has not formed before the official start of hurricane season over the past 20 years were 2022, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006, 2005 and 2004.
While most preseason storms developed in May, there have been two occasions over the last 20 years a tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic basin in January, including Hurricane Alex in 2016.
Looking back over the last 20 years, 26 named storms have developed during the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Why the early prediction for a very active season?
About 80% of storms that become tropical storms or hurricanes start between the western coast of Africa and the Caribbean, said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist.
A warming atmosphere is increasing water temperatures across the Atlantic.
Ocean temperatures in February were already as warm as they historically have been in mid-July, Porter said.
In 2024, the season “could start early and end late,” Porter said. “Early-season storms are a threat this year. Whenever there is warm water, watch upper lows developing close to the U.S. coastline.”
During an El Niño year, hurricanes generally decrease since wind shear tears apart developing storms in the Atlantic. But 2023 was the fourth most active season since 1950. The reason was record high ocean temperatures.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had 20 named storms. Seven were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one where sustained winds are at least 111 mph, making it a Category 3 or higher hurricane.
Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane that made landfall in the U.S. in 2023.
Here’s what we can expect in 2024, Porter said, adding “everything depends on how strong La Niña becomes as we head into peak of hurricane season.”
● An above-average number of named storms. And that could be well above average depending on the strength of La Niña between August and October.
● An elevated risk of rapid intensification and major hurricanes due to warm water.
● A great risk for landfall in Texas and Louisiana. “Those states have not been targeted in recent years, but that may change this year,” Porter said.