The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

U.S. economy:

2.3 percent expansion revealed; 1Q revision shows growth, not shrinkage.

- By Martin Crutsinger

The job market, housing and consumer spending have all improved,

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy posted a solid rebound in the April-June quarter after a harsh winter, led by a surge in consumer spending and a recovery in foreign trade that bode well for the rest of the year.

It also ended up squeezing out some growth in the first quarter, reversing an earlier estimate that the economy shrank at the start of the year.

The Commerce Department said Thursday the gross domestic product, the economy’s output of goods and services, grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter. The government also said GDP in the January-March period grew 0.6 percent instead of shrinking at a 0.2 percent pace.

The latest results mirror a familiar pattern over the last few years. The economy has underperfo­rmed in the first quarter and then revved up in the spring and summer. The uneven momentum has contribute­d to overall tepid growth since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009. It’s been the slowest recovery since World War II.

Revised GDP figures for the past three years released by the government Thursday reveal the economy’s already-modest growth since 2011 was even weaker than thought.

Economists, however, are hopeful about the rest of 2015. They expect overall GDP growth to continue strengthen­ing in the second half of this year to around 3 percent, as consumer spending benefits from sizable employment gains. The upbeat outlook ex- plains why the Federal Reserve appears on track to start raising interest rates this year.

On Wednesday, the Fed noted that the job market, housing and consumer spending have all improved. But it kept a key rate at a record low near zero, where it’s remained since 2008. The Fed said it still needs to see some more gains in the job market and feel reasonably confident that low inflation will move back to its 2 percent target rate.

Many economists peg September for the first rate hike, while others say the Fed might wait until the end of the year.

“The second-quarter U.S. GDP data support the Fed’s more upbeat tone on economic conditions and suggests that the economy could cope with higher interest rates.” said Steve Murphy, U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

The Fed, which has been worried that inflation has hovered consistent­ly below its 2 percent target, got some better news on that front. The new GDP report showed overall prices, which had been declining for two quarters because of the steep plunge in oil prices, rose at a 2.2 percent rate in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices accelerate­d 1.8 percent from 1 percent gains in the previous two quarters.

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