The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
International market is still open
Franchise remains willing to spend big on leading prospects.
The Braves were among baseball’s biggest spenders on international free agents last summer, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re tapped out and unwilling to spend more.
Enter Cuban outfield prospect Luis Robert, a 19-year-old slugger who was declared a free agent last week and is considered advanced for his age — he’s reported to be 6-foot-3 and powerfully built — and expected to draw varying degrees of interest from perhaps a dozen teams.
Since he’s eligible to sign during the current international freeagent signing period, the Braves and six other teams who will face restrictions in the next signing period beginning in July can make whatever offer they see fit for Robert if they sign him by June 15.
However, the Braves and those other teams — the Nationals, Cardinals and Astros are among them — would have to pay a steep penalty on any bonus since they exceeded their international bonus allotment last summer.
“Through the hard work of our international department, led by Gordon Blakely, we are in every game,” Braves general manager John Coppolella said, referring to the organization’s pursuit of talent far and wide. “We like Robert, and so do many other teams, so we will see where it goes.”
The Braves would be required to pay a 100 percent penalty on any bonus they paid Robert. If they offered him a $10 million bonus, they’d in effect be committing $20 million for the player. That’s a big reason they’re not considered among the early front-runners for Robert.
Some big spenders including the Dodgers, Cubs and Giants can’t even get involved since they are already in the so-called “penalty box” after spending more than their international bonus allotment in previous years and currently subject to a $300,000 limit on such players.
Though they could spend big before June 15 if they want to, the Braves seem unlikely to get into a major bidding war for Robert, who has drawn the attention of scouts since he was 15 and is considered a prime target for the White Sox and at least two other teams.
The Braves signed the top-rated international prospect last summer, then-16-year-old shortstop Kevin Maitan, to a $4.25 million bonus and signed catching prospect Abraham Gutierrez to a $3.5 million bonus. — DAVID O’BRIEN
Unlucky run production: After yet another game in which Freddie Freeman hit a solo home run, the Braves slugger said he’s “not worried at all” about the batters in front of him struggling to get on base this season.
Instead, Freeman (playfully) said he’s more concerned that he will stop producing so much once his teammates in the Nos. 1 and 2 slots get going.
“They are going to start hitting and hopefully I continue to hit,” Freeman said after the Braves lost 4-3 to the Phillies on Friday. “Hopefully they don’t start hitting and I stop hitting.”
Freeman touched on an important factor about team hitting. Sometimes teams get unlucky with how they string their production together and don’t score as many runs as their production suggests they should.
The Braves have been a bit unlucky early in the season in that respect. That can be illustrated by the “Batting Runs” and “RE24” metrics, as described by Dave Cameron at FanGraphs.
“Batting Runs” is the offensive measure used for the Wins Above Replacement metric. It measures offensive production (adjusted for league and ballparks) but does not account for situations
“RE24” is a run-expectancy metric that accounts for the context of outs and base runners (but not the score or the inning). It assigns more value to production with runners on base than when the bases are empty.
After 16 games, the Braves had a Batting Runs of minus-5.4 and a RE24 of minus-8.91. Subtracting the former from the latter equals minus-3.51, which is the number of runs below expectations the Braves have scored based on their offensive output.
In other words, the Braves have been a bit unlucky with the order in which they’ve produced hits (and walks). Those 3.51 runs may not sound like much, but consider that the Braves have lost four games by one run. — MICHAEL CUNNINGHAM
Hot start for Howard: First baseman Ryan Howard joined the Triple-A Gwinnett Braves on Saturday night for their game against Pawtucket at Coolray Field in Lawrenceville, and he hit singles in his first two at-bats.
Howard’s first-inning single drove home Ozzie Albies for the G-Braves’ first run.
Howard, 37, was signed by the Braves to a minor league contract April 6.