The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Pitcher Newcomb make major leap
His command has improved in three starts since promotion.
Braves left-handed pitching prospect Sean Newcomb walked too many batters in Triple-A. It seems logical he will walk even more in the big leagues. Major league hitters may not be familiar with his tendencies but that’s more than offset by their superior talents and plate discipline.
But it hasn’t worked out that way so far. Newcomb is walking a substantially lower percentage of batters than he did at Gwin
nett. The sample size is small — Newcomb is scheduled to make his fourth start for the Braves tonight at San Diego — but the early results are encouraging
and surprising.
The stakes are starkly higher in the majors, where there is more pressure to perform. But New
comb, 24, said those factors have instead helped him improve his command.
“Most of the time whenever I really have to buckle down, I just get more aggressive and it works a little bit better,” Newcomb said. “I guess just being on a bigger
stage, every pitch matters now rather than maybe having those down moments in the minors.”
Newcomb has walked seven of the 73 batters he’s faced in the majors for a 9.6 walk percentage. In 11 starts at Gwinnett, Newcomb walked 33 of 249 batters faced for a 13.2 percentage.
Is it really possible that the jump in competition has helped Newcomb improve his command?
“Sometimes that is a factor,” Braves catcher Tyler Flowers said. “He is focused on executing whatever pitch is called. Who knows? Maybe down there, he was trying to think more along with the scouting reports. He’s not Greg Maddux or anything but he’s got an idea to get it to the different quadrants (of the strike zone) that you need to get it to.”
It will take many more starts to get enough data to make any real conclusions about Newcomb’s true ability as a major leaguer. But good command early in a career tends to be indicative of future success.
A study by Scott Van Lanten of FanGraphs concluded the three strongest statistical predictors of success for young major league pitchers are strikeout rate, fastball velocity and strikeout rate minus walk rate. Pitchers who strike out a lot of batters and walk fewer keep the ball out of play and runners off the bases, decreasing the role of defense and luck in their results.
Newcomb posted a high strikeout percentage at every level of the minor leagues. His average fastball velocity, reportedly as high as 94 mph in the minor leagues, has been 93.1 mph during his major league starts, according to Pitch f/x data. While those are all positive signs for Newcomb, who was ranked the No. 78 prospect by Baseball America before this season, there are some caveats.
Thus far Newcomb hasn’t piled up a lot of strikeouts in the majors: a 17.8 strikeout percentage, compared to 29.7 percent at Gwinnett. Also, major league hitters might adjust once they see more video of Newcomb and face him more times. Until now, he hasn’t suffered the statistical “penalty” that typically happens for pitchers when they face a batting order for the third time in a game.
Newcomb said he is working to refine his change-up to go along with his curveball and slider. He said that’s the only technical change he’s making for now.
“Nothing I’m too worried about,” Newcomb said. “Just worried about maintaining that command and staying here (in the majors).”