HERE’S WHY THE FLU SEASON IS OFF TO AN EARLY START SO FAR THIS YEAR

NEW YORK — The U.S. winter flu season is off to its earliest start in more than 15 years.

What’s happening

An early barrage of illness in the South has begun to spread more broadly, and there’s a decent chance flu season could peak much earlier than normal, health officials say.

The last flu season to rev up this early was in 2003-04 — a bad one. Some experts think the early start means a lot of suffering is in store, but others say it’s too early to tell.

“It really depends on what viruses are circulating. There’s not a predictable trend as far as if it’s early it’s going to be more severe, or later, less severe,” said Scott Epperson, who tracks flulike illnesses for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Why it matters

There are different types of flu viruses, and the one causing illnesses in most parts of the country is a surprise. It’s a version that normally doesn’t abound until March or April.

That virus generally isn’t as dangerous to older people — good news, since most flu hospitalizations and deaths each winter occur in the elderly. However, such viruses can be hard on children and people younger than 50.

Health officials tend to consider a flu season to be officially underway when — for at least three weeks in a row — a significant percentage of U.S. doctor’s office visits are due to flulike illnesses. That’s now happened, CDC officials said this week.

The agency on Friday estimated there have already been 1.7 million flu illnesses, 16,000 hospitalizations and 900 flu-related deaths nationally.

Flu is widespread in 16 states, though not necessarily at intense levels in each, the CDC said.

In both of the previous two flu seasons, the flu vaccine performed poorly against the nasty predominant virus. It’s too early to say how well the vaccine is performing right now, Epperson said.

What’s next

The early start suggests a lot Americans may be sick at the same time, said Dave Osthus, a statistician who does flu forecasting at Los Alamos National Laboratory. “This could be a precursor to something pretty bad. But we don’t know,” he said.

AP 2018 It’s too soon to know if the U.S. is in for a third miserable flu season in a row, but health officials say not to delay vaccination.