White House, Democrats near agreement on new trade deal

Impeachment aside, NAFTA rewrite might go to vote before 2020.

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration and House Democrats are on the verge of announcing a handshake deal on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA), according to people familiar with the negotiations, paving the way for approval of the deal as early as this month while Democrats gear up for an impeachment vote.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reviewing changes to the agreement that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and his Mexican counterpart, Jesus Seade, have put on paper in the past week.

Recent developments

The two trade officials exchanged proposals on labor inspection rules and tougher steel provisions and finalized a compromise package late Friday that they submitted to Pelosi for approval, the people said. The demand from the U.S. regarding steel and aluminum, which people briefed on the talks said was from the United Steelworkers union, threatened to stall the negotiations last week.

Lighthizer and Seade were scheduled to meet in Washington again Monday and could soon announce a deal.

“Now is the time to vote on it,” Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Monday. “I am optimistic we can reach a deal.”

What it means

Passing the trade deal is President Donald Trump’s top legislative priority and would give him a political win as he faces an impeachment inquiry and heads into a reelection campaign next year. At the same time, it allows

Democrats to show they are capable of legislating even as they are investigating the Trump administration.

Democrats from rural swing districts are especially eager to get a deal done. Farmers have faced devastating economic losses this year because of the trade war with China, although the president has blamed some of that on the delay in getting the USMCA approved.

The U.S. International Trade Commission, an independent government panel, in an April analysis said USMCA would boost the U.S. economy by 0.35% and lead to 176,000 new jobs in the sixth year after implementation, a small addition to 132 million people employed full time in the U.S.

Key to reaching a deal has been neutralizing any opposition from the largest U.S. union confederation, the AFL-CIO.

Trump and his advisers tout USMCA as the best agreement ever negotiated for unions and Democrats, particularly the deal’s labor provisions and stricter auto-content rules that they say would boost U.S. manufacturing.

What’s ahead

Pelosi last month cautioned that even with a deal, there might not be enough time to vote on the agreement this year. There are still a number of procedural hurdles before the agreement can come to the floor for a vote. Those steps could be waived to save time, though, and people familiar with the talks said lawmakers are likely to skip some of them.

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka urged Democrats in a November meeting not to rush into an agreement without strong enforcement procedures. The labor leader told The Washington Post on Monday that there was a deal and that he was planning to discuss it with his executive committee later in the afternoon.

GETTY IMAGES House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, shown in February with President Donald Trump, and Congress could receive the USMCA for ratifying by mid-month. While the process is lengthy, it has been suggested some steps can be skipped to speed things up.