The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2020 begins with unbelievable tests
Unknown of Trump impeachment may play into others’ decisions.
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump starts the new year kneedeep in foreign policy challenges at the same time he’ll have to deal with a likely impeachment trial in the Senate and the demands of a reelection campaign.
America’s longest war is ongoing in Afghanistan. North Korea hasn’t given up its nuclear weapons. Add to that simmering tensions with Iran, fallout from Trump’s decision to pull troops from Syria, ongoing unease with Russia and Turkey and erratic ties with European and other longtime Western allies.
Being an impeached president who must simultaneously run for reelection could reduce the time, focus and political clout needed to resolve complex global issues like North Korea’s nuclear provocations. Some foreign powers could decide to just hold off on finalizing any deals until they know whether Trump will be reelected.
At the same time, there is widespread expectation that Trump won’t be convicted by the Republican-controlled Senate, so 2020 could well bring more of the same from the president on foreign policy, said Ronald Neumann, president of the American Academy of Diplomacy.
“America still has an awful lot of power,” said Neumann, a three-time ambassador and former deputy assistant secretary of state. “With a year to go, a president can still make a lot of waves, impeachment or not.”
A deeper look at the state of play on top foreign policy challenges the U.S. faces as 2020 begins:
U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks lose traction
The U.S. is watching North Korea closely for signs of a possible missile launch or nuclear test.
Pyongyang had threatened to spring a “Christmas surprise” if the U.S. failed to meet Kim Jong Un’s year-end deadline for concessions to revive stalled nuclear talks. Trump speculated maybe he’d get a “beautiful vase” instead. Any test flight of an intercontinental ballistic missile or substantial nuclear test would further derail the diplomatic negotiations Trump opened with Kim in 2018.
Washington didn’t accept Kim’s end-of-year ultimatum, but Stephen Biegun, the top U.S. envoy to North Korea, said the window for talks with the U.S. remains open. “We are fully aware of the strong potential for North Korea to conduct a major provocation in the days ahead,” Biegun, the new deputy secretary of state, said recently.
In recent months, North Korea has conducted a slew of shortrange missile launches and other weapons tests.
In 2017, Trump and Kim traded threats of destruction as North
Korea carried out tests aimed at acquiring the ability to launch nuclear strikes on the U.S. mainland. Then the two made up and met three times. While the meetings have made for good photo-ops, they’ve been devoid of substantive progress.
U.S.-Iran strains continue
Tensions with Iran have been rising since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal Tehran had signed with the U.S. and five other nations. Trump said the deal was one-sided and gave Iran sanctions relief for rolling back, but not permanently dismantling, its nuclear program.
After pulling out of the deal, a “maximum pressure” campaign began, reinstating sanctions and adding more that have crippled Iran’s economy. The aim is to force Iran to renegotiate a deal more favorable to the U.S. and other nations still in the agreement.
In response, Iran has continued its efforts to destabilize the region, attacking targets in Saudi Arabia, interrupting commercial shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz, shooting down an unmanned U.S. aircraft and financing militant proxy groups. Since May, nearly 14,000 U.S. military personnel have deployed to the region to deter Iran.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said his country’s nuclear experts are testing a new advanced centrifuge. Iran recently started exceeding the stockpiles of uranium and heavy water allowed by the nuclear deal and is enriching uranium at a purity level beyond what is permitted. Tehran’s violations are an attempt to get France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia to offer new economic incentives to offset the American sanctions.