2020 forecast to be a busy hurricane season

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal, according to forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The official outlook released on Thursday predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal season.

Forecasters said there is a 70% chance for 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, and three to six could become major hurricanes at Category 3 to 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, acting NOAA administrator. If all goes as predicted, this year could become the fifth consecutive above-normal hurricane season, said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster. It is also a year in which the country must manage the possibility of storm evacuations and sheltering during a pandemic.

Hurricane season officially runs June 1 through Nov. 30, peaking from August to October. As in the past six years, the 2020 hurricane season got an early start. Tropical Storm Arthur was named in mid-May when wind speeds hit 39 miles an hour. Storms are upgraded to hurricanes when they reach wind speeds of 74 miles an hour. As Arthur moved toward the coast of North Carolina, it slowed and was ultimately designated a post-tropical storm.

The Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, remains in a 20-to-40-year period of sea surface temperature fluctuations that began in 1995 and is responsible for much of the above-normal storm activity, Bell said. Hurricanes are fueled by warm, moist air continually rising up from the ocean’s surface. The absence of El Niño, which tends to suppress hurricanes, along with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal hurricane season.

More than a dozen seasonal forecasts are published each year, and almost all have been consistent in forecasting an above-average hurricane season.

In April, researchers at Colorado State University predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms in 2020 and a 69% probability of landfall on the U.S. coast. Accuweather also issued an early forecast in late March, which called for an above-normal season with 14 to 18 tropical storms, seven to nine of which could become hurricanes and two to four predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes.

As the season approaches, concerns about disaster planning during a pandemic have been heightened. “Imagine a county where a significant amount of people have to be relocated because infrastructure is destroyed,” said Juan Declet-Barreto, climate vulnerability social scientist for the Union of Concerned

Scientists. “People will be evacuated and sent to shelters in stadiums or other places that would likely create conditions for the spread of COVID-19.” Declet-Barreto said federal agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency need to be ready to deploy resources.

Carlos Castillo, acting deputy administrator for resilience for FEMA, said the agency has been planning and preparing. “This year will not be the first time FEMA has managed more than one large disaster at one time,” he said. Castillo acknowledged some of the challenges, including limited space in hotels and evacuation centers due to social distancing, but said one huge factor in making a difference is for families and individuals to plan ahead.

“Evacuation centers are designed to keep you safe but not necessarily comfortable,” Castillo said. “They will implement social distancing standards in accordance with CDC guidelines, but it is preferable to go to someone’s home if possible.”

In Georgia, emergency management officials have been reviewing their processes for several weeks. Shelters will hold fewer people to allow more social distancing, and everyone will be tested for COVID-19 before they walk through the door, officials said. “That’s part of the challenge of the evacuation — the destination of where we’re going to send people,” Dennis Jones, director of the Chatham County Emergency Management Agency covering Georgia’s coast, told the AJC last week. “Making sure the destination facility is safe for our citizens, as well as making sure the facility is safe from our citizens.”