As virus rages, New York leery of another rise

NEW YORK — As coronavirus rages out of control in other parts of the U.S., New York is offering an example after taming the nation’s deadliest outbreak this spring — while also trying to prepare in case another surge comes.

New York’s early experience is a ready-made blueprint for states now finding themselves swamped by the disease. It could also come in handy at home, as the region readies for a potential second wave of infection that experts predict will likely come at some point.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo has offered advice, ventilators, masks, gowns and medicine to states dealing with spikes in cases and hospitalizations and, in some places, rising deaths. Some health care workers are heading to other states to help fight the virus, reciprocating the influx that gave New York hospitals some much-needed relief just months ago.

At the same time, the Democratic governor has ordered travelers from more than a dozen states to quarantine for 14 days, while urging New Yorkers not to let up on wearing masks or social distancing.

Yet with the virus tearing through the South and

West, Cuomo warned Friday it would eventually rear up again in New York. “We’re doing everything we can,” he told WAMC radio, but “I can feel it coming.”

A widely cited University of Washington model doesn’t project spikes — at least through its Nov. 1 time frame — in New York, New Jersey or Connecticut, whose Democratic governors have coordinated on traveler quarantines and, earlier, some shutdown policies. But that doesn’t mean the densely populated tri-state area is in the clear.

“We expect the virus to return in all of those states,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, head of the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. “The question is one of timing.”

After health workers in New York and elsewhere grappled with shortages of masks, gowns and other protective gear this spring, Cuomo said he would order hospitals to have a 90-day supply on hand. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city would build its own reserve of ventilators, protective equipment and coronavirus test kits, identifying local suppliers and manufacturers.

“I’m not sure how long this progress is going to hold,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, the director of the Pandemic Resource and Response Initiative at Columbia University.