The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Recent signing history a cautionary tale
Dak Prescott got his big contract worthy of a franchise quarterback, while big-play receivers Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson got slapped with franchise tags.
Before the new league year and annual spending spree started, many of the top players at the premium positions were once again kept off the open market.
It’s a predictable pattern in the NFL where the franchise tag, or even the threat of it, helps keep most of the best quarterbacks, pass catchers, pass rushers and tackles from ever hitting true free agency.
Teams shopping for help each March usually must settle for spending big money on second-tier players at premium spots or target lower-profile spots such as the interior offensive line.
“You never want to go crazy in free agency,” Broncos first-year general manager George Paton said. “You don’t want to build your team in free agency. You want to fill selective needs going into the draft . ... You don’t always want to be the first one out of the gate and throw all your money, but if there is something you need, you’ll take a shot.”
Some needs are typically more available than others when it comes to free agency. NFL franchises have handed out 85 contracts the past three offseasons to free agents who switched teams, led by 14 interior offensive linemen.
In all, more than half (46 of 85) of the big-money deals went to offensive linemen and front-seven defensive players. Seven tackles, seven interior defenders, nine edge rushers and nine linebackers also got hefty contracts, with six of the edge rushers cashing in last offseason.
That class fell far short of delivering, with Robert Quinn, Dante Fowler (Falcons), Mario Addison, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson and Carl Nassib going from an average of 9.1 sacks the year before hitting the open market to just 3.1 last season.
The results for receivers changing teams in free agency haven’t been much better. Only two of the 11 players who got contracts worth at least $25 million even posted a 1,000-yard season with their new team. Robinson did it the last two years of his three-year deal with Chicago and got the franchise tag. John Brown did it for Buffalo in 2019 — and he was released last week.
The few tight ends and running backs to get paid in free agency haven’t fared much better. Four of the five players were let go before the end of their deals. Only ex-Falcon Austin Hooper remains after signing a $42 million, four-year deal in Cleveland last offseason.
Teams have handed out 17 big contracts in the secondary the past three offseasons, with only Tyrann Mathieu, Richard Sherman, James Bradberry and Byron Jones offering strong returns on investment.
Spending in free agency is a cautionary tale. Of the 25 players given contracts to change teams worth at least $25 million in the 2018 offseason, 12 were let go before the end of those megadeals.
The 2019 class isn’t faring much better, with nine of the 29 players given contracts of at least $25 million to change teams already being cut.
No team fared worse than the Raiders, who paid nearly $80 million the past two years to tackle Trent Brown, defensive back Lamarcus Joyner and receiver Tyrell Williams — with little return on the investment.