The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Russia amasses troops near Ukraine
Russia is steadily massing its largest military presence in years near the Ukrainian border — on land and sea — as the Kremlin tests Western support for Kyiv and its battles against pro-moscow separatists less than three months into the Biden administration. Russia’s motivations for the buildup are still unclear and do not necessarily signal a looming offensive, Ukrainian and Western officials said. But moving forces from as far away as Siberia — more than 2,000 miles — to near Ukraine and onto the Crimean Peninsula has injected new levels of alarm in a region that has been a key flash point between the West and Moscow since 2014.
HOW DID THIS START?
■The annexation: In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, prompting international condemnation and sanctions. The following month, war broke out between Russian-allied separatists and Ukraine’s military in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas.
■Fighting since then: More than 13,000 people have been killed in the fighting since then, according to the United Nations. The last bout of large-scale combat was more than four years ago, but there have been periodic exchanges of artillery along a front line that has barely budged.
WHAT IS RUSSIA’S MOTIVATION?
■Potential threat: Russia’s sudden military surge appears to be more about sending messages than launching a fresh offensive, analysts said. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine’s warm relations with the United States and Europe are a challenge to Moscow’s influence in the region, especially as President Joe Biden has vowed to take a harder line with the Kremlin. Ukraine’s aspirations of joining NATO are also seen by Russia as a potential threat on its doorstep.
■Sending a message: “Russia is testing everyone’s nerves and declaring its position: It should remain an important player for other countries, both the United States and Ukraine,” said Ruslan Leviev, an analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team. “They are trying to show that Russia will not tolerate any sanctions or other actions put in place to pressure them to return Crimea to Ukraine or to change the course of things in Donbas.”
■Blaming Ukraine: Putin has pointed to “provocative actions by Kyiv, which is deliberately inflaming the situation along the line of contact,” according to the Kremlin, using a term to denote the front lines in eastern Ukraine. “Ukrainians view this buildup as a bit puzzling,” said an adviser close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “The idea that Ukraine is about to launch an invasion (into Donbas) is viewed as ludicrous and a pretext for something else.”
■A gun to Ukraine’s head: “Russia is literally putting a gun to Ukraine’s head and blackmailing its neighbor with military escalation,” Omid Nouripour and Manuel Sarrazin, foreign policy spokesmen for Germany’s Greens political party, said in a statement. That sentiment was echoed by one European diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with protocol to brief the news media. “Russia’s buildup of forces is at best destabilizing and aggressive posturing, at worst the buildup to a military offensive,” he said.
“The lack of a credible explanation and disinformation about Ukrainian provocation is intended to undermine Ukraine and its sovereignty.”
HOW HAS THE U.S. RESPONDED?
■Reassurances: In Biden’s April 2 phone call with Zelensky, Biden pledged “unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression,” according to the White House readout. On Thursday, Zelensky visited Ukrainian troops near the front lines.
■Military assistance: The United States has sent Ukraine $4.5 billion in assistance since 2014, including two shipments of Javelin antitank missiles from the Trump administration. The advanced weaponry is kept far from the front lines because of U.S. concerns about provoking Russian escalation and the possibility of the weaponry falling into the hands of U.S. adversaries, according to congressional aides familiar with the situation. Two U.S. warships are en route to the Black Sea and will remain there until May 4, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said Friday.
HOW IS UKRAINE RESPONDING?
■Fortifying borders: Ukraine has called up reservists to fortify its eastern and northern borders in response to Russia’s troop movements. “What is quite clear for me is that Zelensky and the people around him are seriously concerned about a possible invasion,” said Alyona Getmanchuk, the director of the New Europe Center think tank in Kyiv.
■Appeal to NATO: Zelensky appealed to NATO for membership in a call with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday. Zelensky said it was the “only way to end the war” with the separatists.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
■Russian threat: The warnings from Moscow are stark. Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin’s chief negotiator in relations with Kyiv and the separatists, said Thursday that if Ukraine joined NATO, the move would lead to the country’s “disintegration.” “I support the opinions that also exist inside Ukraine that the start of military action would mean the beginning of Ukraine’s end,” he said.