Canada-bred Messier has speed, style to contend at Derby

Messier, named for Hall of Fame NHL center Mark Messier, will try to become the third Canada-bred horse to win the Kentucky Derby, following Northern Dancer (1964) and Sunny’s Halo (1983).

After drawing post position No. 6, he was installed as the third betting choice at 8-1 on the morning line behind Zandon, the favorite at 3-1, and Epicenter (7-2). With his combination of speed, running style and pedigree, the talented colt looks poised to win this year’s Derby. And while there are other colts in the field that also have the tools for a successful run Saturday, it is rare to see these attributes mesh as perfectly as they do for Messier.

To make sure the horse would be eligible for Saturday’s Run for the Roses, embattled trainer Bob Baffert — serving a two-year suspension at Churchill Downs — transferred Messier to Tim Yakteen, a former Baffert assistant who went out on his own in 2004. In his first and only start for Yakteen, Messier ran second in April’s Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, finishing 2¼ lengths behind Taiba. Jockey John Velazquez has ridden Messier in his past two races and will be back in the saddle for the Derby.

Messier won from just off the pace in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December and raced similarly when he placed in the Santa Anita Derby. He also went wire-to-wire in the Grade 3 Robert

B. Lewis Stakes, run at 1 1/16 miles, and won by 15 lengths. The stalking running style has been found in 75% of Kentucky Derby winners since the points system was adopted in 2012 despite being used by a little more than a third of all horses entered. In other words, stalkers such as Messier win far more than their share of Kentucky Derbies. (This analysis excludes the 2020 Derby, which was run in September.)

Speed is also not an issue. Messier has improved his speed figure for six straight races, earning a career-best 108 Brisnet figure in the Santa Anita Derby. That gives him three 100-plus speed figures to date, including two during his 3-year-old campaign. He also earned a 103 Beyer speed figure from the Daily Racing Form, one of the highest marks in the field.

Earning top figures from two rating systems is noteworthy. Since 1992, 27 of 30 Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer speed figure of at least 95. Had Maximum Security not been disqualified in 2019, it would be 28 of 30. A healthy number of Derby winners, 19 of the past 22, recorded a Brisnet speed figure of 100 or more before the race. (Different outlets use different methods to calculate speed figures and to adjust for track conditions, but most are calibrated so that a higher number is better.) It’s also worth noting Messier earned a careerbest pace figure to the half-mile mark in the Santa Anita Derby.

In addition to having speed, a winning horse needs the stamina to carry it for 10 furlongs. Because all these horses are going 1¼ miles for the first time, the only way to attempt to gauge how suited they are for the distance is to look at their pedigrees, and Messier is stacked with bloodlines teeming with Triple Crown success.

His sire, Empire Maker — a son of Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled — was the runner-up in the 2003 Kentucky Derby before winning the Belmont Stakes. Unbridled’s grandsire, Mr. Prospector, is a legend in American horse racing. His male-line descendants have won almost half the Triple Crown races since 1990, with almost an even split among the Kentucky Derby (14), Preakness Stakes (16) and Belmont Stakes (15).