Bigger, Stronger NATO could provoke Russia

It’s likely to be the quickest NATO enlargement ever and one that would redraw Europe’s security map. Finnish leaders announced Thursday their belief that Finland should join the world’s biggest military organization because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Sweden could soon follow suit. Should they apply for membership, the move would have far-reaching ramifications for Northern Europe and trans-atlantic security.

The Kremlin immediately hit back, saying Finland’s accession to NATO would “definitely” be a threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited NATO expansionism as a reason for his invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s accession to the alliance would double its land border with Russia.

The following is a brief look at what Finland and Sweden’s membership in the 30-country NATO alliance could mean, with the Nordic partners expected to announce their intention to join within days.

Finland and Sweden

Not neutral like Switzerland, Finland and Sweden traditionally think of themselves as militarily “nonaligned.”

But Russia’s war in Ukraine and Putin’s apparent desire to establish a Moscow-centered “sphere of influence” has shaken their security notions to the core. Just days after he ordered the Feb. 24 invasion, public opinion shifted dramatically.

Support in Finland for NATO membership has hovered around 20-30% for years. It now stands at over 70%. The two are NATO’S closest partners but maintaining good ties with Russia has been an important part of their foreign policy, particularly for Finland.

Now they hope for security support from NATO states — primarily the United States — in case Moscow retaliates. Britain pledged on Wednesday to come to their aid.

NATO

Finland and Sweden contribute to the alliance’s operations and air policing.

Most importantly, they already meet NATO’S membership criteria, on functioning democracies, good neighborly relations, clear borders and armed forces that are in lock-step with the allies. After the invasion, they formally boosted information exchanges with NATO and sit in on every meeting on war issues.

Both are modernizing their armed forces and investing in new equipment. Finland is purchasing dozens of highend F-35 warplanes. Sweden has top quality fighter jets, the Gripen.

Finland says it’s already hit NATO’S defense spending guideline of 2% of gross domestic product. Sweden too is ramping up its military budget and expects to reach the target by 2028. The NATO average was estimated at 1.6% last year.

Russia

Putin has demanded that NATO stop expanding and in his May 9 speech blamed the West for the war.

But public opinion in Finland and Sweden suggests he has driven them into NATO’S arms.

Putin has promised a “military, technical” response if they join. But many troops from Russia’s western district near Finland were sent to Ukraine, and those units suffered heavy casualties, Western military officers say.

So far, Moscow is doing nothing obvious to dissuade the two — apart perhaps from a couple of incidents where Russian planes entered their airspace. The Kremlin said its response could depend on how close NATO infrastructure moves toward Russia’s borders.

Some at NATO worry the Russians might deploy nuclear weapons or more hypersonic missiles to the Kaliningrad exclave, across the Baltic Sea wedged between allies Poland and Lithuania.