Purdue making statement

Boilermakers closing in on No. 1 regional seed as teams enter stretch run for NCAA Tournament bids.

2023-01-21 - By Patrick Stevens

Regardless of the set of numbers under examination, it’s hard to argue about Purdue’s strength a few games past the midpoint of the regular season.

The Boilermakers (18-1, 7-1 Big Ten) outlasted Michigan State 64-63 on the road Monday in a stellar holiday afternoon game, much as they did last year while going double overtime at Illinois. They sit atop a league full of good teams but lacking in truly great ones.

Zach Edey and Co. own seven Quadrant 1 victories, the top tier of games when the NCAA basketball committee evaluates teams, and should have several opportunities to add more.

So what makes it any different from last year, when Purdue was 15-2 on Jan. 17 and in the hunt for a No. 1 seed? The Boilermakers have largely fixed their leaky defense, a chronic issue last season. Purdue finished the year 93rd nationally in Kenpom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency, its lowest ranking in the metric since 2012.

This year? Purdue sits at No. 29, right in line with most of coach Matt Painter’s recent teams.

The offense, meanwhile, is a worthy successor to last year, when the Boilermakers ranked No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency behind Duke. They’re No. 1 this season.

Purdue has settled into a routine over the last month, playing games mostly between 60 and 65 possessions, keeping opponents to about 65 points or fewer and letting its offense take it from there. Little wonder it took running into an elite defensive team — Rutgers, a 65-64 winner at Purdue on Jan. 2 — to deal the Boilermakers their only loss.

For now, Purdue occupies the No. 2 overall seed in The Washington Post’s projected field of 68. With a more complete team than last year, the Boilermakers could very well remain right around there right up until Selection Sunday. All records are through Thursday:

Field notes

■ Last four in: Kentucky, Nevada, Maryland, Pitt

■ First four on the outside: Oklahoma, Penn State, Texas A&M, Central Florida

■ Next four on the outside: Wake Forest, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Florida

■ Moving in: Cornell, Kentucky, Liberty, Marshall, Morgan State, Nevada, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Southern Illinois, UC Santa Barbara, Maryland Baltimore County, Youngstown State

■ Moving out: Indiana State, Milwaukee, Mississippi State, Norfolk State, Princeton, Southern Mississippi, Stetson, Virginia Tech, UC Irvine, Umass Lowell, Utah Valley, West Virginia

■ Conference call: Big Ten (10), ACC (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Mountain West (4), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2), West Coast (2)

■ Bracket projection: Midwest vs. East, South vs. West

Midwest Region

Des Moines

■ (1) BIG 12/Kansas vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/MORGAN STATE-SOUTHLAND/TEXAS A&m-corpus Christi

■ (8) New Mexico vs. (9) CONFERENCE Usa/florida Atlantic

Albany, N.Y.

■ (5) Auburn vs. (12) ATLANTIC 10/Dayton

■ (4) Rutgers vs. (13) SUN BELT/ Marshall

Columbus, Ohio

■ (6) Acc/clemson vs. (11) Memphis

■ (3) BIG East/xavier vs. (14) Horizon/youngstown State

Sacramento

■ (7) Arkansas vs. (10) Northwestern

■ (2) Gonzaga vs. (15) SOUTHERN/SAMFORD

Notes: Auburn is about to start an interesting stretch — four of six away from home, but just one game (Feb. 4 at Tennessee) against a team projected to be in the tournament . ... Clemson is 7-1 in the ACC and owns four Quadrant 1 victories. It also has lost to South Carolina and Loyola Chicago, a pair of Quadrant 4 setbacks. The good increasingly outweighs the bad on the Tigers’ résumé . ... It was a good week for Xavier, which knocked off Creighton and Marquette at home. The Musketeers are also 4-1 on the road, though they haven’t faced any of the Big East’s top teams away from Cincinnati . ... Arkansas constructed a decent profile in nonconference play but has dropped four in a row, three by double digits. The Razorbacks lost to Missouri — the last team they defeated — on Wednesday.

East Region

Birmingham, Ala.

■ (1) Sec/alabama vs. (16) BIG Sky/eastern Washington

■ (8) N.C. State vs. (9) Indiana

Orlando

■ (5) Baylor vs. (12) SUMMIT/ Oral Roberts

■ (4) Marquette vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara

Des Moines

■ (3) Kansas State vs. (14) IVY/ Cornell

■ (6) Illinois vs. (11) Missouri

Sacramento

■ (7) Duke vs. (10) Creighton

■ (2) PAC-12/UCLA vs. (15) BIG South/longwood

Notes: N.C. State’s profile has improved since the start of the month, picking off Duke, Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech to solidify its postseason standing. A trip to North Carolina awaits this weekend . ... Baylor put together a three-game winning streak after an 0-3 start to Big 12 play. The Bears are 3-5 in Quadrant 1 games, have played a top10 schedule and appear to have stabilized things . ... After staggering through a wobbly December, Illinois has won four of five. The latest victory was an 18-point thumping of Minnesota on Monday that got the Illini over .500 in the Big Ten for the first time this season . ... Duke had a midweek bye, and the seven days between games represent the Blue Devils’ longest stretch to tinker the rest of the way. They’re still not at full strength; Jeremy Roach has missed the past three games, and Dereck Lively hasn’t played more than 15 minutes since Dec. 10.

South Region Columbus, Ohio

■ (1) BIG Ten/purdue vs. (16) NORTHEAST/FAIRLEIGH Dickinson-america EAST/UMBC

■ (8) Arizona State vs. (9) MOUNTAIN WEST/BOISE State

Greensboro, N.C.

■ (5) TCU vs. (12) Kentucky/ Maryland winner

■ (4) Virginia vs. (13) ATLANTIC Sun/liberty

Albany, N.Y.

■ (3) Connecticut vs. (14) PATRIOT/COLGATE

■ (6) Miami vs. (11) Wisconsin

Denver

■ (7) San Diego State vs. (10) Ohio State

■ (2) Texas vs. (15) OHIO VALLEY/SIU Edwardsville

Notes: Quietly, Arizona State has constructed a solid profile that is easily the third best in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils are a combined 6-3 against the top two quadrants and look like a rocksolid tournament team . ... Kentucky did more to help itself with its victory at Tennessee than it did to harm itself by losing at home to South Carolina. Nonetheless, that’s one of the weirdest weeks anyone in the sport has had this season . ... Colgate is off to a 7-0 start in Patriot League play, the continuation of an impressive run of dominance. The Raiders are a combined 71-13 against conference foes (including the league tournament) over the past five seasons . ... San Diego State usually loses one Mountain West home game each season: Fresno State in 2018 and 2019, UNLV in 2020, Colorado State in 2021 and Boise State last season. New Mexico picked off the Aztecs last Saturday.

West Region

Birmingham, Ala.

■ (1) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/ Houston vs. (16) SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN

■ (8) Iowa vs. (9) North Carolina.

Orlando

■ (5) WEST COAST/SAINT Mary’s vs. (12) Nevada/pittsburgh winner

■ (4) Iowa State vs. (13) MISSOURI Valley/southern Illinois

Denver

■ (3) Arizona vs. (14) WESTERN ATHLETIC/SEATTLE

■ (6) Providence vs. (11)

MID-AMERICAN/KENT State

Greensboro, N.C.

■ (7) Michigan State vs. (10) COLONIAL/COLLEGE of Charleston

■ (2) Tennessee vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/SIENA

Notes: Iowa has gotten well with a four-game winning streak, three of which came at home. After a postponement of Wednesday’s game against Northwestern

in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes are scheduled to play six of nine on the road. That will be a telling stretch . ... How to win games and influence advanced metrics: Saint Mary’s is 17-4 with only three victories by single-digit margins and four losses by a combined 15 points . ... Arizona has dropped two of four, but only two teams have more than its five Quadrant

1 victories (Purdue and Kansas). The Wildcats will probably be fine, but they’d be well served to tighten up on defense . ... College of Charleston has won 19 in a row, the nation’s longest winning streak. It’s increasingly likely the Cougars end up with a single-digit seed if they can escape the rest of their schedule largely unscathed.