Why retail sales are defying odds

America’s consumers rebounded last month from a weak holiday shopping season by boosting their spending at stores and restaurants at the fastest pace in nearly two years, underscoring the economy’s resilience in the face of higher prices and multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. What happened

The government said Wednesday that retail sales jumped 3% in January, after having sunk the previous two months. It was the largest one-month increase since March 2021.

What it means

Car sales, along with healthy spending at restaurants, electronics stores and furniture outlets, drove the gains. Some of the supply shortages that had slowed auto production have eased, and more cars are gradually moving onto dealer lots. The enlarged inventories have enabled dealers to meet more of the nation’s pent-up demand for vehicles.

Why it matters

Whether America’s shoppers can continue to spend briskly will help determine how the economy fares this year. The eight interest rate hikes the Fed has carried out in the past year have raised the costs of mortgages and auto loans as well as credit card interest rates. Inflation has also eroded workers’ paychecks, thereby limiting their ability to spend freely.

Yet for all the challenges, consumers continue to show resilience. Several factors likely helped propel last month’s spending. About 70 million recipients of Social Security and other government pension programs last month received an 8.7% boost in their benefit checks, an annual cost-of-living adjustment to offset inflation. It was the largest such increase in 40 years.

What about inflation?

The job market surged in January, with nearly a half-million new jobs added. The unemployment rate reached 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969. With many businesses still eager to hire and keep workers, average wages and salaries have risen about 5% from a year ago — among the fastest such rates of increase in decades.

Those raises have generally been eaten up by inflation. Still, consumer price increases have been slowing. And for many households, a sharp drop in gas prices since summer has freed up more money to spend.

He said it ‘What we see here is that the U.S. consumer is still spending despite stories of its untimely demise.’ The figures suggest ‘that the U.S. economy is not slowing much and is still likely growing above trend.’ Alex Pelle, U.S. economist at Mizuho, said in a note