Forecasters expect 2.2% growth for this year

Business economists no longer predicting a 2024 recession.

NEW YORK — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than busi- ness economists were fore- casting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday.

The economy looks set to grow 2.2% this year after adjusting for inflation, accord- ing to the National Associa- tion for Business Economics.

That’s up from the 1.3% that economists from universities, businesses and investment firms predicted in the asso- ciation’s prior survey, which was conducted in November.

It’s the latest signal of strength for an economy that’s blasted through pre- dictions of a recession. High interest rates meant to get inflation under control were supposed to drag down the economy, the thinking went. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel.

But even with rates very high, the job market and U.S. household spending have remained remarkably resil- ient. That in turn has raised expectations going forward. Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. econ- omist at Morgan Stanley and president of the NABE, said a wide range of factors are behind the 2024 upgrade, including spending by both the government and house- holds.

Economists also more than doubled their estimates for the number of jobs gained across the economy this year, though it would still likely be down from the previous one.

Offering another boost is the fact that inflation has been cooling since its peak two summers ago. While prices are higher than consumers would like, inflation has slowed enough that most of the surveyed forecasters expect interest rate cuts to begin by mid-June.

The Fed has said it will likely cut them several times this year. That would relax the pressure on the economy, while goosing prices for stocks and other investments.