The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
3 keys for Phillies to displace Braves in NL East
Breakout seasons from Suárez, Bohm could help close gap.
There are three things that need to go right for the Phillies to win 100-plus games and unseat the Braves for the NL East title. They aren’t the only things that need to go right. And they need to be accompanied by a lot of things that do not go wrong. That being said, this is the path:
1. Ranger Suárez is who he should be, or who he could be, instead of who he has been.
Who Suárez should be: a classic middle-of-the-order out-gobbler who pushes for the league lead in quality starts and ranks in the top 20 in innings.
Who Suárez could be: a borderline All-Star who makes 30-plus starts and earns a hefty contract extension at a No. 2 starter price point.
Who Suárez has been: all of those things, in spurts. Which has been perfectly fine for the Phillies. More than fine, really. But that’s not the point of our conversation here. We’re talking about the things that need to go right for the Phillies to win the division and contend for the World Series as something more than an underdog.
Nobody should be surprised if Suárez finishes the year with 180-plus innings and a sub-3.25 ERA. If that happens, nobody should be surprised if the Phillies are division champs (assuming Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are who they’ve been).
All that needs to happen is for Suárez to get rid of those aforementioned spurts.
Or make it a big long spurt. That’s all that Suárez needs to do to make the Phillies better than they look on paper right now — or to offset a less pleasant surprise elsewhere on the roster.
To give you some sense of what I mean, refresh yourself on his numbers from his three best stretches during the past two years. Then, consider that they collectively represent 61% of his total starts.
■ May 30 to June 27, 2023: Six starts, 1.35 ERA, 37 strikeouts, 10 walks, 40 innings.
■ Aug. 1 to Sept. 16, 2023: Six starts, 2.86 ERA, 36 strikeouts, 16 walks, 34⅔ innings.
■ May 31 to Sept. 29, 2022: 19 starts, 2.82 ERA, 90 strikeouts, 37 walks, 108⅔ innings.
Those are legit Game 2 starter numbers.
The potential is even more tantalizing when you consider the nature of the starts not represented in the above three spans. Three of them came after he missed the first six weeks of 2023 with an ill-defined arm issue. Two more came the day after the Phillies had clinched a playoff berth and the clubhouse still smelled like Budweiser.
Subtract those and we’re mostly talking about a 2½-month stretch from early July to late September of 2023 when he walked 31 batters and allowed 10 home runs in 69⅓ innings. After which, his results morphed back to what they’d been.
The hardest thing to do in professional sports is make the leap from very good to consistently very good. Suárez is 75% of the way there because everything about his game is consistent. The Phillies need the other 25% for a breakthrough.
2. The world bears witness to the long-awaited Alec Bohm breakout season.
Let’s talk about a guy who can make himself some serious coin over the next few years. Bohm is still only 27 years old. He’s entering his fourth full big league season. The defense is no longer an issue. Neither is the bat, really. He has given the Phillies a league-average bat at third base for the last two seasons. The big question remains: Can he give them something more?
I think he can. I thought that last year at this time. I was right — for the first two weeks of the season. Bohm hit .359 with a .985 OPS and three home runs in his first 17 games.
Then, I was wrong. Bohm finished June with a .716 OPS and seven home runs total. In the end, I was kind of right. Bohm hit 13 home runs with an .807 OPS in his last 77 games. He finished with modest numbers: a .765 OPS, 20 home runs, typical bottom-of-the-order fare for a contender. Under the hood, there remain signs of untapped potential. His home run percentage has risen from 1.7 to 2.1 to 3.3 in his three full seasons in the bigs. So has his extra-base-hit percentage. His strikeout rate has fallen each year. He is hitting more fly balls. A guy with his profile should be drawing more walks. But power is all he really needs to make a huge impact on the Phillies’ on-paper expectations. I still think it is in there.
Honorable mention here is Nick Castellanos having a season like the one he had for the Reds in 2021. I just think Bohm is more likely to have that season.
3. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado are who they are when they’ve been at their best.
Let’s not forget how the Phillies initially won hearts and minds. Before the clubhouse chemistry, the Schwarbombs and the “Dancing On My Own” remixes, there were four shutdown pitchers who dominated the most important innings of the most important games. Last year, each of the four was something less than he was in 2022. Still good enough to get to the precipice of the World Series. Not good enough to carry the Phillies to a division title. Combine the 2022 versions of those pitchers with the 2023 version of the lineup and you would have seen plenty more wins.
Pitching is hard. Staying healthy enough to pitch is hard. The Phillies still don’t have the depth to survive a major injury or bout of regression from one of their Fab Four.
Not if they want to unseat the Braves.