Monumental decision looms for Bears at quarterback

Does club stick with 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields or take Caleb Williams No. 1 overall?

Caleb Williams may or may not be the NFL’s next great quarterback.

Justin Fields may or may not be a viable NFL franchise quarterback still in the making.

There really is no way of knowing. That is the case even with a prospect as celebrated as Williams, the former Heisman winner at USC who is expected to be the first player chosen in April’s NFL draft. Things simply must play out.

But the Bears aren’t able to allow things to play out. They have a consequential decision to make. They must predict and project. And they cannot be wrong.

All that’s at stake is the on-field future of their franchise for the next decade or so.

Chicago picks No. 1 pick in the draft, courtesy of last year’s trade with Carolina that enabled the Panthers to move up and use the top selection on quarterback Bryce Young. The Bears also have Fields on their roster. But three seasons into his NFL career, the former Harrison High School star has not developed into an upper-tier quarterback. He has demonstrated some signs of being a capable starter, though.

The Bears could keep the No. 1 pick and use it on Williams, an approach that probably would entail trading Fields. Or they could retain Fields, trade the top draft choice for a major haul of other selections — and perhaps players — to fortify the roster. Of course, if the Bears believe Williams is a transformative player — too good to pass up no matter the trade offer — it’s not much of a decision.

“I lean heavily in favor of taking Caleb Williams,” Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout who now is a draft analyst for the NFL Network, said last week. “Unless you’ve got the offer of all offers, which is a combination of picks and players that is literally too good to turn down, it’d have to blow me away to move off of that pick . ... There aren’t perfect players. Caleb is not a perfect player. Caleb is going to require some patience and assembly there. But the ability is off the charts.”

This NFL draft class is top-heavy with prominent quarterbacks. It’s possible that Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels will be the first three players selected. But as the draft-evaluation process intensified last week at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, so much revolves around Williams and the Bears’ decision. Chicago also has the draft’s No. 9 pick.

“I think you’ve got to be smart (about) how you get him going and get him up and running,” Jeremiah said of Williams. “But I think the upside there, the tools there, are pretty dang elite. And while I hear the argument of ‘build up the whole roster and think about the whole team,’ I’m like: ‘Yeah, well, I know one or two Super Bowls every 10 years you’ll get a Nick Foles magic carpet ride with an unbelievable team.’ The rest of them seem to be won by the Patrick Mahomes and Tom Bradys of the world, the elite guys.”

The Bears have not tipped their hand. Shane Waldron, their new offensive coordinator, said at his introductory news conference last week he’s confident his system will work with either Fields or a rookie at quarterback.

Waldron said he’d exchanged messages with Fields. When asked what intrigued him about the Bears’ quarterback situation, he mentioned both the draft-choice situation and the state of the current roster.

“Obviously it’s a unique spot in the draft to have the first overall pick, the ninth overall pick,” said Waldron, who spent the past three seasons as Seattle’s offensive coordinator. “Just from an organization in general, it’s not going to happen too often . ... And then also a core group of players that are already in place on offense, including the quarterback.”

Fields said last week on “St. Brown Brothers,” the podcast hosted by NFL wide receivers Amon-Ra and Equanimeous St. Brown, that “of course” he wants to stay with the Bears, adding: “I can’t see myself playing in another place.” But mostly, he said, he wants to know the outcome.

“It’s a business,” Fields said on the podcast. “I ain’t got no control over it. So whatever happens, happens. But I feel like the biggest thing with all this going on right now, I just want it to be over.”

The Bears have gone 10-28 in Fields’s 38 NFL starts since they traded up to select him 11th in the 2021 draft. They have not finished above third place in the NFC North in his three seasons. But there have been enough flashes to make observers wonder what could happen with a better team around him.

None of that matters, of course, if the Bears are convinced Williams can develop into an NFL quarterback capable of Mahomeslike exploits.

“You’re going to have Patrick Mahomes’ name come up,” Jeremiah said. “And, look, you don’t want to compare somebody to the best player on the planet. But just in terms of how he kind of plays with the creativity and the whole flair and all the different types of throws he can make in terms of driving the ball, layering the ball, extending plays, all those things — there are some similarities there.”

The Washington Commanders have the No. 2 selection and could attempt to trade up a spot to reunite Williams with Kliff Kingsbury, their new offensive coordinator who spent last season on USC’s coaching staff as a senior offensive analyst. Williams is a native of Washington, D.C. It’s not clear where he would prefer to play — or whether that preference matters to the Bears.

There are alternate scenarios that could keep the Bears’ decision from being strictly a choice between Williams and Fields. They could retain Fields to pair him with a prized rookie quarterback. They could trade down in the draft order and select a different quarterback.

But if they take Williams and trade Fields, practically no one in the NFL would be surprised. Much would be expected of Williams. He was not as dazzling in his final season at USC as he’d been while winning the Heisman in 2022. He will enter the NFL amid considerable fanfare while facing intense scrutiny. And, unlike Mahomes, he probably will be an immediate starter.

“Pat needed some time to clean some things up and got a chance to sit for a year,” Jeremiah said. “Obviously I don’t think Caleb’s going to be afforded the same luxury in that department. But I think you can put a plan in place where you put more on his plate the longer that he goes.”

Arizona senior guard Pelle Larsson takes a devilish pride in drawing charges, even if it leaves him battered, bruised and buried in ice bags after every game.

“It makes the offense look kind of stupid, to be honest,” Larsson said. “It’s even better than a steal or a block. It’s a turnover and a foul, so it’s the best defensive play you can make.”

Drawing a charge often is a momentum-changer. It’s also been a massive point of consternation, a slippery slope on which no one’s exactly sure where the parameters for a block or a charge fall with the players who crash to the hardwood.

The NCAA took a stab at clarifying block-charge calls with a new set of guidelines for the 2023-24 season.

Unlike past attempts, this one seems to have hit the mark.

“I think it’s been good. I do,” said Houston coach Kelvin Sampson, whose team is known for its sticky defense. “It’s one of those rules I think it’s made it easier for the officials because now it’s clearly cut and dry.”

The NCAA Playing Rules and Oversight Panel laid out the new rules over the summer. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes was the committee chair, and he admitted the panel’s goal was “to try to reduce the number of charges that are called.”

Under the new rules, a defender now must be in position at the time the offensive player plants a foot to go airborne for a shot. If the defender arrives after the player has planted, officials have been instructed to call a block when there’s contact. Secondary defenders also have to be outside the restricted arc to draw a charge.

Previously, defenders only had to be in position to draw a charge before the offensive player went airborne.

As a result, all those instances of sliding in front of a driver, secondary offenders jumping in the way at the last second or undercutting a player already airborne now are automatic block calls.

“I can only tell you from what I have witnessed and what I have heard from officials and coaches,” NCAA coordinator of officiating Chris Rastatter said. “The number of block/charge plays at the basket is way down, which was the main intent of the rule change. I believe the impact of the rule change has been positive.”

The numbers back it up. Scoring is up across college basketball — 73.89 points per game per team after finishing at 71.76 last season.

Alabama (91.1) and Arizona (90.1) are the first teams to average more than 90 points per game since Gonzaga in 202021. And the number of teams averaging at least 80 points per game has increased from 18 last season to 44 this season.

The NCAA doesn’t differentiate types of offensive fouls, but the eye test has been clear so far.

“I think what you’re seeing is more scoring at the rim,” Arizona assistant coach Jack Murphy said. “Defenses have had to adjust. Way more vertical contests and less bang-bang plays at the rim that are 50/50 block/ charge. I think it’s been good for the game.”

It definitely was an adjustment.

Early in the season, players who were used to sliding in front of driving opponents to take a charge often found themselves being hit with blocking calls. Once they got the hang of it, the collisions around the rim diminished and the game became more free-flowing.

And unlike previous attempts to emphasize block/charge calls, officials have — for the most part — stuck with the way they’re calling games, even into conference play starting in January.

“It’s similar to (NBA) basketball or European basketball where you need to be there way earlier,” Larsson said. “You can’t really flop as much and just get the call. Used to be, you could just fall and they would call a charge.”

Not anymore — and the game seems to be better for it.

RYAN SUN/AP 2023 USC QB Caleb Williams wasn’t as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, when he won the Heisman, but he’s seen as the likely No. 1 pick in April’s draft because of his unique skill set. The question for Chicago, both for its present and its future, is whether it thinks that skill set can make the team a winner.

TRENT SPRAGUE/CHICAGO TRIBUNE/TNS Justin Fields has done some good things for the Bears, but he isn’t close to being a top-tier QB. Can he get there? If Chicago doesn’t think so, it will trade him.

RICK SCUTERI/AP Arizona guard Pelle Larsson said he likes the new block/charge rule that was instituted before the season: “You can’t really flop as much and just get the call. Used to be, you could just fall and they would call a charge.”