Cunningham

and the Saints’ Derek Carr that the Falcons will leapfrog both? The bettors and oddsmakers seem to think so, but I’m skeptical.

I also had doubts that the 2023 Falcons would be better. I turned out to be right about that. If I’m wrong this time, it will be because Cousins rediscovers his Pro Bowl form a year after suffering a torn Achilles. If Cousins is only “pretty good,” the Falcons still won’t win the South.

The division is weak, but it’s not as if the Bucs and Saints are losing a lot of talent after both finished 9-8 in 2023. The Bucs retained Mayfield after his comeback season and kept their best playmakers, Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. The Saints won’t be losing any key players in free agency after star linebacker Demario Davis reworked his contract to provide salary-cap relief.

The Saints had the No. 9 scoring offense in 2023 and the Bucs were 20th. The Falcons ranked 26th in scoring. The Bucs and Saints ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in scoring defense in 2023. The Falcons were 18th.

Adding Cousins will help the Falcons gain ground on the Bucs and Saints, but both still look better on paper. The Falcons could end up with a better roster by the start of the season. They have more resources to make additions.

Spotrac.com, which keeps track of pro teams’ finances, says the Falcons will have roughly $12 million in salary-cap space remaining once they sign Cousins. The Bucs have about $20 million left after re-signing Mayfield. The Saints are, as always, tight against the cap.

The Falcons also have more draft capital than Tampa Bay and New Orleans. They own the No. 8 overall selection and three other picks in the first 80. The Bucs have four picks in the top 92, but their first is No. 26. The Saints have only two picks higher than 149th (Nos. 14 and 45).

It’s possible the Falcons will follow the Cousins signing by getting more things right than wrong with their remaining cap dollars and draft picks. But the reality is the draft can be a crapshoot and free-agent signings tend to be hit-or-miss. Maybe a new coaching staff will put the Falcons over the top, but coach Raheem Morris and his coordinators have plenty to prove.

Morris has co-signed the notion that the Falcons would have been winners in 2023 with better quarterback play. They’ll have it now. Cousins is a good quarterback. He’s never been an elite quarterback, but the Falcons are paying him like one because he was the best available.

The commitment for Cousins basically is $100 million for two years. That’s a higher average salary than Patrick Mahomes, the two-time league MVP and threetime Super Bowl champion. Cousins is 1-3 in the playoffs (he did throw the winning touchdown pass to beat the Saints in a 2019 wild-card game). Mayfield is 2-2 in the postseason.

Adding Cousins prompted oddsmakers to make the Falcons a substantial favorite to win the South. Convert the odds into implied probabilities, and the betting markets believe the Falcons have a 40% chance to win the division, the Bucs have a 30% chance and the Saints have a 29% chance. The odds say the Panthers have a 1% chance, and that seems high.

Cousins isn’t enough for me to put the Falcons ahead of the Bucs and Saints. The oddsmakers set the over/under for the Falcons at 8.5 wins last season. I took the under, and they won eight games.

I think I’ll end up being right about them again.

TIM NWACHUKWU/GETTY IMAGES/TNS Is Kirk Cousins the missing piece for Atlanta? A lot of folks, including Vegas oddsmakers, seem to think so. While his addition undoubtedly is big, the front office still has work to do if the Falcons are to catch — and pass — Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the division.

PETER JONELEIT/AP 2023 Baker Mayfield (6) and the Bucs did a lot of celebrating on their way to the NFC South title in 2023. He has been resigned, and Tampa Bay also kept stud receiver Mike Evans and star safety Antoine Winfield Jr.