March Madness lacking in NBA lottery prospects

Many potential high-end picks are playing internationally or for the G League Ignite.

2024-03-21 - By Ben Golliver

The good news for NBA draftniks: Cooper Flagg, a 17-year-old Duke commit from Maine, is on track to be a captivating headliner for men’s basketball’s March Madness next year. Now for the bad news: This year’s NCAA Tournament field, which was revealed Sunday before play began Tuesday night, is lacking in Flagg-like phenoms with obvious superstar potential. Think of the 2024 class as overlooked middle children sandwiched between 2023 No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama, the best teenager in a generation, and Flagg, the most exciting NCAA prospect since Zion Williamson and the consensus favorite to be the first selection in 2025. To make matters worse, this year’s college crop of men’s players is also stuck toiling in the long shadow cast by Iowa’s Caitlin Clark, the biggest star in college basketball.

Depth of top-end talent is an issue: At least six potential lottery picks — Alex Sarr, Nikola Topic, Zaccharie Risacher, Tidjane Salaun, Matas Buzelis and Ron Holland — played internationally or for the G League Ignite developmental program. Isaiah Collier, a seventh lottery candidate, and Bronny James, the much-hyped freshman son of Lakers forward LeBron James, will be missing in action because their USC team didn’t qualify for the tournament.

What’s more, none of this year’s top seeds — Connecticut, Houston, Purdue and North Carolina — is led by a prized one-and-done standout such as Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr., who went 1-2-3 in the 2022 draft after starring for Duke, Gonzaga and Auburn, respectively. Despite these challenging circumstances, here are five college prospects for NBA die-hards to monitor as the tournament tips off.

Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

When all else fails, Kentucky can be counted on to deliver NBA talent. The Wildcats have produced 23 lottery picks since coach John Calipari’s arrival in 2009 — and two more players could join that list in June.

Sheppard (12.8 points, 4.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds per game) is a homegrown product whose parents, Jeff and Stacey, both played for Kentucky. The 19-yearold freshman has come off the bench for most of the season, but his deadeye outside shooting and deep range have led to an expanded role since the new year.

While there are questions about his size and explosiveness, the 6-foot-3 guard is a fierce and disruptive defender who exhibits a team-first attitude on both ends. Even if NBA executives ultimately conclude he doesn’t have the physical tools to serve as a lead guard, Sheppard’s blistering 52.5% 3-point shooting on 4.4 attempts per game will hold strong appeal in a space-obsessed league.

After suffering a quarterfinal loss in the SEC Tournament, Kentucky slotted in as the No. 3 seed in the South Region with an opening-round game against No. 14 Oakland today and a possible round-of-32 matchup against No. 6 Texas Tech or No. 11 North Carolina State on Saturday.

Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Like Sheppard, Dillingham (15.4 ppg, 3.9 apg, 2.8 rpg) has climbed up draft boards as a freshman despite filling a backup role for the Wildcats. Optimists will see Dillingham, 19, as a potential franchise guard given his fearless demeanor, quickness off the dribble, strong ballhandling skills and 44.9% 3-point shooting.

But on the spectrum of Calipari-coached guards, the 6-2 Dillingham lands closer to Tyrese Maxey and Malik Monk than John Wall and De’Aaron Fox because of his smaller stature, lithe frame and unrefined distribution skills. His best NBA role might wind up being the same as his Kentucky job: super-sub scorer.

It’s worth noting the Spurs, who could have two of the top seven picks, and Wizards need significant backcourt help, while the lottery-bound Pistons, Hornets and Trail Blazers could have other priorities.

Cody Williams, Colorado

In a draft class that’s weak at the top, a strong tournament could vault Williams (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 apg) into consideration for the No. 1 pick.

As a lanky 6-8 forward with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, the 19-yearold freshman has strong measurables and an attack-minded style on offense that puts those physical attributes to good use. Williams is a less-polished scorer and a less-proven outside shooter than his older brother — Thunder guard Jalen Williams — but he has enough ballhandling ability to consistently beat opponents off the dribble and decent vision as a playmaker.

The Buffaloes eked into the tournament as one of the last at-large bids and had to face Boise State in an opening-round game Wednesday, putting Williams at risk of an early exit. With a win, Colorado would face No. 7 Florida in the East Region on Friday.

Drafting Williams, who missed more than a month with a wrist injury and has donned a mask after taking a blow to the face recently, represents a reasonable gamble on upside. He should be able to play on and off the ball offensively, his length and quickness should allow him to defend multiple positions, and he will boast a prototypical wing frame once he adds weight.

Washington, Detroit, San Antonio and Portland are among this year’s bottom-feeders who could have interest in Williams, given their positional needs. Cautious optimism is in order, however, because he is unlikely to make an instant impact like Hornets forward Brandon Miller, a more refined scorer who was 2023’s No. 2 overall pick out of Alabama and is averaging 16.6 points as a rookie.

Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Filipowski (17.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.8 apg) was destined to be a polarizing prospect even before he became engulfed in court-storming and tripping controversies in recent weeks. The half-full take: Duke’s 7-foot big man is productive, smart and energetic, and he is a versatile offensive threat because he can move from the post to the perimeter, handle the ball and make the occasional 3-pointer.

The half-empty version: Filipowski, a 20-year-old sophomore, appears to lack the vertical athleticism to dominate as an interior scorer or back-line defender at the NBA level. Those limitations could wind up casting him as a second-unit offensive fulcrum during his NBA transition, a role that might be more appealing to a playoff-bound team rather than a lottery-dweller hunting for a future star.

Duke enters the tournament as the No. 4 seed in South Region and will face No. 13 Vermont in its opener Friday before a possible round-of-32 game against No. 5 Wisconsin or No. 12 James Madison on Sunday.

Donovan Clingan, Connecticut

Wembanyama and Holmgren have taken the NBA by storm as unicorns capable of dribbling, shooting, passing, rim-protecting and defending in space. By contrast, the 7-2 Clingan (12.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.3 bpg) is a traditional big man who excels in the paint on both ends and was a useful reserve on the Huskies’ 2023 national championship team.

This year, the Bristol, Conn., native has stepped into a starting role for the Huskies, who won the Big East Tournament, earned the No. 1 seed in the East Region and have a good shot at becoming the first back-to-back champions since Florida in 2006 and 2007.

A reliable finisher who keeps things simple on offense, the 20-year-old Clingan is a high-volume rebounder and an active and adept shot-blocker who defends well without fouling. Questions about his mobility and endurance, as well as his inability to space the floor on offense, will increase once Clingan lands in the NBA. Former Duke center Mark Williams was selected 15th overall in the 2022 draft with a similar profile, meaning Clingan should have a chance to land in this year’s lottery despite those concerns.

UConn freshman guard Stephon Castle also should draw significant interest from scouts because of his Swiss army knife game. The Huskies open their tournament run Friday against No. 16 Stetson before a likely round-of-32 game Sunday against either No. 8 Florida Atlantic or No. 9 Northwestern.