Electric vehicles reach ‘mass adoption’ point in 31 countries

New technologies have a tendency to blindside. When color TVs were introduced in the 1950s, for example, they seemed like a flop. The devices were expensive, programming was scarce, and after a decade on the market few homes had one.

Then suddenly, prices dropped, a ratings war ensued and in just a few years most U.S. households were watching The Jetsons in its futuristic palette.

A comparable shift is underway with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of adoption rates around the world. By the end of last year, 31 countries had surpassed what has become a pivotal EV tipping point: when 5% of new car sales are purely electric.

This threshold signals the start of mass adoption, after which technological preferences rapidly flip.

When we first completed this analysis in 2022, only 19 countries had passed the 5% tipping point. Last year, that number soared as EVs spread across four continents. For the first time, some of the fastest-growing markets were found in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia.

The trajectory laid out by countries that came before them shows how EVs can surge from 5% to 25% of new cars in under four years. Why is 5% important?

New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance.

The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism.

The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each country’s journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.

“Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.”

While this market-share approach to EV tipping points shows how fast the transition to electric cars can take hold, it doesn’t preclude yearto-year slowdowns or setbacks due to supply-chain disruptions, economic downturns, bankruptcies and politics.

Analysts at BloombergNEF expect fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales to increase about 22% this year globally.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe surprised Georgians with his March 7 announcement that Rivian would pause plans to build its next factory on about 2,000 acres east of Atlanta.

AJC 2022 Analysts believe global sales of EVs, including Rivian vehicles built in Normal, Illinois, and hybrids will increase by more than 20% this year.