Valadao holds early lead in 22nd Congressional District race
No particular candidate has emerged from Tuesday’s rancorous primary as the clear leader, as expected in California’s 22nd Congressional District, historically one the closest races in the nation.
As of Monday at 9:16 p.m., with 11.1% of precincts reporting, tallies show incumbent David Valadao, R-Hanford, holding a healthy 12% lead over Republican challenger Chris Mathys. Former Bakersfield Assemblyman Rudy Salas was in third and state Sen. Melissa Hurtado was so far in last place. The difference between the first and last candidate at this time is less than 2,000 ballots.
Due to California’s “jungle primary,” the top-two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the general election in November.
As results continue to trickle in, a familiar score has been set up between Valadao, Mathys and Salas to once again compete for the seat.
Valadao, seeking his sixth term in Congress, has proved to be a resilient politician. His victory in November 2022 over Democratic challenger Rudy Salas was touted as one of the most contested — a 3% margin of victory — and expensive races in the country.
He has held the region for the better part of the last decade, regaining the seat in 2020 after being thrust out of the increasingly Democratic district in 2018. He runs for re-election once again against Salas, who he faced in 2022.
Valadao’s staff told The Californian Tuesday that the incumbent is dealing with a personal matter, and — outside a redeye flight to Washington, D.C. — would spend the day with family.
“There are still thousands of ballots that need to be counted,” said Faith Mabry, a spokesperson for Valadao, saying the campaign will have a more definitive response as results come in.
The pressure around his seat
is especially strong this year, as Republicans cling to their threeseat majority in the House, and as viable Democrats fight once again to wrest control of the left-leaning district. Following redistricting in 2021, Democrats have a 17-point voter registration edge.
Valadao’s greatest challenge may lie in Rudy Salas, a former Bakersfield Assemblyman and the Democratic party’s chosen candidate. His endorsements range across the state, from Gov. Gavin Newsom to the Kern and California Democratic parties.
The southern U.S. border notwithstanding, turnout is one of the top issues as candidates head into the final day. As of Monday, about 14% of California’s 22 million registered voters had returned their ballots, according to Political Data Inc.
With this in mind, Salas said he’s knocked on “thousands of doors,” from Lamont to Porterville, Delano to Hanford. “It’s really been everywhere,” he said of the support. “We just need people to submit their ballots.”
With the exception of Valadao, candidates spent Tuesday combing the district, trying to translate last-minute talks into votes.
But even Salas is not a sure bet, as he faces an intra-party contest with Hurtado, D-Bakersfield, whose seat mirrors 95% of the U.S. House District. If elected, either would be the Central Valley’s first Mexican-American representative in the House.
Standing outside the Kern Elections office Tuesday afternoon, Hurtado admitted frustration with the lack of party support over the past few months, saying it’s made it difficult to raise money and establish her campaign.
Despite her vexation — and worries of low voter turnout, Hurtado is confident her name recognition, given her 2022 midterm victory over Republican David Shepard, gives her a fighting chance. “People know me,” Hurtado said.
And regardless of the outcome, Hurtado said she will respect “the will of the voters.”
“I respect the will of the voters, if they decide we don’t want Hurtado ... I completely respect that,” Hurtado said, adding that Wednesday, March 6 is her birthday. “It’s going to be a happy birthday regardless of the outcome.”
And Mathys, R-Bakersfield, who garnished a large portion of conservative votes in the 2022 primary race, did not attend the Republican watch party. Instead he and other conservatives, gathered at the Firehouse Station in southwest Bakersfield.
Mathys did not respond in time to requests for comment on the results.
Following redistricting in 2021 that tilted the district to the left, this Central Valley seat oversees most of Kings County, parts of Tulare and Kern counties and the cities of Delano, Shafter, Porterville and parts of Bakersfield. It is a district with a Latino plurality, where the average household brings in $54,700 annually and whose survival rides on the health of the region’s oil and agricultural industries.
Though Republicans have won the district in most of the recent election cycles, it has been historically competitive. Past races in the Central Valley have come down to the sway of moderates, which means a victory may likely come by a couple of hundred votes.