Boudreaux has edge over Fong in first returns of 20th District House race
Mike Boudreaux, a 37-year veteran of the Tulare County Sheriff’s Office who framed his run as a “fresh face” with a strong focus on the U.S. border, now leads a razor-thin path to succeed former Rep. Kevin McCarthy after initial poll results released Tuesday night placed him over seven challengers in California’s 20th Congressional District race.
With just 1.5% of the precincts reporting as of 9:16 p.m. Tuesday, the vote so far is: 10,027 votes for Mike Boudreaux, the Tulare County Sheriff, R-Springville; 8,417 votes for Bakersfield Assemblyman Vince Fong; 8,055 votes for Bakersfield English teacher Marisa Wood, D-Bakersfield; and 1,802 votes for Clovis casino owner Kyle Kirkland.
In this race, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election in November regardless of whether one candidate secures more than 50% of the vote. The returns in Tuesday night were very preliminary.
The district, which includes parts of Kern, Tulare, Kings and Fresno counties, has about 449,000 registered voters. About 51% of these are in Kern County.
At the start of a watch party at the 1933 Speakeasy Bar and Grill, it was the hour of the butterfly in the stomachs of politicians in attendance.
Few local candidates who attended — Bakersfield Mayor Karen Goh and Councilman Ken Weir, Kern Supervisors Phillip Peters and Jeff Flores — enjoyed the food provided along the buffet counters that flanked the banquet tables around which people sat and watched the projected screen. Those invitees who did plate something ate light, taking several sips of spirits for every bite.
Boudreaux, however, did not attend. Instead, the longtime lawman told The Californian he spent his Super Tuesday vacillating between the phone bank and resuming sheriff duties. With a state law enforcement association meeting planned Wednesday morning, a spokesman for
Boudreaux said they decided to watch the results closer to home in Tulare.
“We’re continuing to watch numbers closely,” said Alex Tavlian, who manages Boudreaux’s campaign. “It’s clear that the race for the top two is going to be tightly-contested. We’re looking forward to additional updates.”
In a race that has garnered national attention, Fong has long remained the favorite among the Republican establishment, around whom the party coalesced. While district numbers did not favor him, he held a comfortable lead in Kern County polls, with 54% of the vote.
He placed second in an Emerson College Poll released in January that found 26% of voters chose him for the seat. Boudreaux and Wood each netted 11%. But 35% of likely voters were undecided, in large part due to Fong’s unresolved eligibility in the race.
The Bakersfield assemblyman was ruled eligible in December to run in two races — for the 20th House seat and for his re-election bid. The move has led to an ongoing legal battle, though without an update in his state appeals case, Fong will likely continue to the general election in November.
Dogged by mediocre fundraising numbers in 2023 and uncertainty in early polls, Fong has come out on top as the definitive choice in the race. In the first six weeks of the year, Fong has nearly tripled his campaign cash, up to $768,000 in contributions, with more than a quarter coming from various political action committees.
But despite the financial lead, the race is anything but decided, as a low voter turnout makes every ballot count. As of Monday, about 14% of California’s 22 million registered voters had returned their ballots, according to Political Data Inc.
The winner of the seat in November will succeed McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, who vacated the role at the end of last year. Without a named stand-in, the district has gone months without representation in Washington, D.C.
A solidly red district — 48% Republican and 21% unaffiliated — in contrast with its neighbor to the northwest, has not seen a serious contest since 1978, when then-freshman Rep. Bill Thomas, R-Bakersfield, routed Bob Sogge with 59.3% of the vote.
Since that time, the district — then the 18th — has been redrawn four times and held by the same two Republicans, Thomas and his successor, McCarthy, who together cruised through 22 election cycles without serious competition.