When the wind is at your back, run harder
“Let’s be honest. This is a good economy.”
Those were the words, not of this generally optimistic writer or a candidate for office or an academician. They were spoken two weeks ago by Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, who was flush with data dripping with good news.
The job market roared into 2024 with
353,000 jobs created in January and an upward revision of 117,000 for December (to 333,000), all of which was a continuation of the three best back-to-back-toback job market years in history.
Unemployment remained well under 4% for the 24th straight month. Layoffs and separations remained low, voluntary quits remained strong, and the monthly hires level remained over
6,000,000. Concurrently, wages rose sharply – 0.6%, a most impressive monthly rise – with a sustained annual rate of 4.5%, once again running far ahead of inflation.
It’s an incredibly powerful, consistent job market.
Meanwhile, on a broader scale, the IMF expects the American economy to grow 2.1%, a sharp upgrade from the previous 1.5% and considerably better than the EU at 0.9% and Japan at 0.6%. “Economies worldwide,” blared a recent New York Times headline, “can’t match U.S. growth.”
Certainly, this huge success did not come without a cost. The American government has spent a lot of money –
$5 trillion in relief and stimulus packages – thereby running up the debt. But many economists point out – and I along with them – that the newly refortified middle class will more than pay that back with the spending it so badly wanted but couldn’t do in the years leading up to the pandemic. This is looked at with wide consensus as a great trade-off. Add to that the success of the United Auto Workers, and you get not only a boost for the auto industry, which is about 3% of our economy, but a model for and a reflection of the bottomup-middle-out model of sustainable growth and equitable progress.
Nonetheless, say most economists, increased spending plus a deficit that is a relatively high percentage of GDP, should be expected to spur further interest rate hikes.
But what are we seeing? An articulated tendency on the part of the Fed to consider lowering rates. This is not only encouraging; it’s almost unimaginable. And by the way, has anyone been watching the Dow lately?
Regular and longtime readers of my columns know that I usually emphasize that the individual pay little attention to the overall numbers, as the only number that matters is one: the one job you’re trying to get.
So, my most heartfelt advice is also simple. Push the paradigms, the politics, the prejudices, and the personal agendas aside – and focus on the limitless opportunities that a positive outlook in a gem of a job market will yield.
That’s still as true as ever, but the unprecedented power and glow of our current economy and markets bring into play the role of attitude. “Your attitude determines your altitude,” says the admittedly hackneyed cliché, but it applies more than ever today, given that, in the best economy in ages, there are still people who think it’s in bad shape. Coincidentally, they are, from my vantage point in coaching and otherwise assisting people in every phase of their careers, the same people who are having trouble in their job searches or career management. If you talk yourself into believing negativity, then things are negative, including your situation. On the other hand, if you see things as positively as they are, your chances soar. Need I really say that?
There’s another apt adage: “If you fall down a well and don’t immediately try to climb out, everything seems like up to you. Plus, your butt stays wet.”
So, my most heartfelt advice is also simple. Push the paradigms, the politics, the prejudices, and the personal agendas aside – and focus on the limitless opportunities that a positive outlook in a gem of a job market will yield.
A mentor of mine many years ago used to tell me, “When the wind is in your face, run hard; when the wind is at your back, run harder.” That’s always worked for me, and right now, the wind is at our backs. This is when the race is won – with a very strong wind at our backs, one that shows no sign of weakening. My confidence lies in seeing the success of the 60 people who so far have taken – or are still taking – part in my six-month “Coach on Call” program I instituted 16 months ago in which they and I work very closely together – and very openly and honestly ...
... with the wind at our backs.
Eli Amdur has been providing individualized career and executive coaching, as well as corporate leadership advice since 1997. For 15 years he taught graduate leadership courses at FDU. He has been a regular writer for this and other publications since 2003. You can reach him at eli.amdur@amdurcoaching.com or 201-3575844