EU sees China as partner, poll says

However, Russia considered a rival

BRUSSELS — When Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France recently made separate but friendly visits to China, it sparked considerable dismay among their fellow leaders in Europe and Washington.

Especially given Beijing’s “no-limits partnership” with Russia, the efforts to treat China as what Macron called “a strategic and global partner,” rather than as a rival, were met with sometimes caustic criticism.

Yet, an extensive opinion poll released Wednesday shows that Europeans tend to agree with them.

Even as Beijing moves closer to Moscow, and despite the war in Ukraine, a majority of Europeans still see China predominantly as “a necessary partner,” according to the poll of more than 6,000 people in 11 European Union member states carried out in April by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The poll indicates that majorities in all 11 countries are unwilling to support the United States against China if there were to be a military escalation between these two powers and would wish to remain neutral.

At the same time, Russia is increasingly seen as an adversary or rival, a view held by some 64 percent of respondents, an increase from about one-third of respondents when the same question was posed in a 2021 poll.

“Europeans clearly see the Russia-China alliance and that it’s formed against the West, but they treat them differently,” said Jana Puglierin, coauthor of the report accompanying the poll. “That only changes if China supplies arms to Russia.”

Indeed, 41 percent of Europeans would support economic sanctions against China if Beijing were to provide significant military aid to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, while 33 percent would oppose that step.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points in larger countries and plus or minus 3 percentage points in smaller ones.

While wishing to cooperate with Beijing on global issues such as climate change, European leaders officially consider China a “systemic rival” and “economic competitor,” according to their “strategic compass,” the EU’s strategy paper.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, in a speech in late March took a tough line on Beijing, saying that it was entering a new era of “security and control,” had a policy of “divide and conquer” and that Europe must “de-risk” key sectors from dependence on China.

Her views are closer to those of the Biden administration, but European opinion is closer to the views of Macron, Puglierin said.

Yet Macron was widely criticized for his comments after visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping in April, when he said that Europe should not be “followers” on Taiwan or “adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”

He said that it would be “a trap for Europe” to get caught up in crises “that are not ours.” Europeans should continue to develop their own strategic autonomy and become a “third pole” in the world order, and not risk becoming “vassals” in a US-China confrontation. Like Scholz, Macron downplayed any rivalry and said that China was “a strategic and global partner.”