Lillard would be too big of a risk
It’s not Dame Time for the Celtics.
Before former Celtic Isaiah Thomas was the “King in the Fourth,” Damian Lillard patented a signature celebration for clutch moments and takeover time, pointing to an imaginary wristwatch. That signified it was Dame Time. Now, the Portland Trail Blazers star, the epitome of loyalty in an NBA era of itinerancy and impatience, has signaled his time is up in the Pacific Northwest. The Celtics are kicking the tires on the seven-time All-Star point guard, according to reports.
As tempting and tantalizing as the thought of teaming Lillard’s long-range proficiency with Jayson Tatum is for the Celtics as they chase Banner No. 18, the time isn’t right — and the timeline doesn’t line up — to sell out for Lillard. Mortgaging the future and the partnership of Tatum and Jaylen Brown for Lillard would be a mistake, even if it meant keeping Lillard away from the rival Miami Heat, his preferred destination. Being able to acquire Lillard without moving Brown feels like a parquet pipe dream.
Time for the Celtics to make like Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Heat and drop this one. The Celtics have been down this road before, hitching their hoops wagon to a dynamic, prolific point guard. They’re 0 for 3 in building banner teams with them.
Betting on little guys is a big gamble. Their margin for aging gracefully is smaller than that of taller players, and they’re one injury away from being stripped of their transcendence. They tend to endure about as well as spotted bananas.
The aforementioned Thomas restored the team to relevance and the playoffs. But he ultimately broke down with a bad hip and was never the same player.
Kyrie Irving was unable to help the team during the 2018 playoffs, as complications from a pri
or fracture of his left patella limited him to 60 games and ended his participation in March. Irving played in 67 games in 201819 but left the Celtics at the altar after pledging to stay.
His replacement, Kemba Walker, spent two injuryplagued seasons in Boston, hampered by a bad left knee that required a stem-cell injection before the 2020-21 season. That knee helped limit him to 56 and 43 games. It left Walker a shell of his former self by the time he departed.
There are already a lot of miles on Logo Lillard’s NBA odometer. He turns 33 on July 15.
Among active players, only LeBron James (38.1) and Kevin Durant (36.7) have averaged more minutes per game than Lillard (36.3) in his 11-year career. The same goes for the active leaders in playoff minutes per game, where Lillard ranks third behind LeBron and KD at 40.3.
It’s hard to claim that the 6foot-2-inch Lillard is in decline — yet.
Last season, he scored a career-high 71 points, canning 13 3-pointers, in a game against the Houston Rockets. His scoring average was the highest of his career, 32.2 points per game. But it’s a major question mark how long he can retain that level of sublime play.
Lillard’s NBA hourglass has more sand on the bottom than on the top. He hasn’t played in 70 games since the 2018-19 season. The last two seasons he has played in 29 games (abdominal surgery) and 58; he missed time with a calf injury that led Portland to shut him down for the final 10 games.
A title window with Lillard might be like a Kentucky player — one and done.
If the Celtics stay the course with Tatum and Brown, who conspicuously still hasn’t signed his five-year, $295 million supermax extension, they have more runway to chase championships (multiple).
Brown turns 27 in October. Celtics fans are serving side-eye to him after a disastrous, discombobulated performance in the Eastern Conference finals. However, he has improved every year and is a second-team AllNBA talent on the wing, a coveted commodity.
Any Brown-Lillard debate could be moot. Once the Celtics sign Brown to the supermax, he’s not eligible to be traded for a year. If he doesn’t sign it, his trade value becomes distressed since he would become a free agent following this upcoming season.
Why would a team such as Portland entering a rebuild without its Polaris player gamble on taking on Brown, who could depart for nothing in free agency after one season?
The Celtics’ other assets aren’t enticing. Yes, they have a passel of draft picks, but secondround picks have negligible value. Any smart general manager would also realize that as long as Tatum is a Celtic, the first-round picks Boston sends their way won’t be lottery ones.
Can the Celtics convince the Trail Blazers to take on relative flotsam and jetsam such as Malcolm Brogdon’s $22.5 million salary or the fragile Robert Williams for Lillard?
That seems doubtful when Portland general manager Joe Cronin doesn’t appear enamored with Miami’s offer built around a young, projectable player in Tyler Herro. Signed to a four-year, $130 million extension that kicks in this upcoming season, Herro, 23, is contract controllable and has averaged better than 20 points per game each of the last two seasons.
The Celtics don’t have anyone who fits those criteria. They would need a third team to lure Lillard to Causeway Street. That’s assuming the Celtics are willing to push well past the second apron of the NBA’s luxury tax ($182.8 million) to accommodate the contracts of Tatum, Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Lillard, who makes $45.6 million in 2023-24 and is owed more than $216 million over the next four years.
There’s a fine line between determined and desperate. Desperation can lead to impetuousness and poor decisions. Trading for Lillard would be a desperate move.
Plus, Lillard and his media retinue have expressed reservations about Boston, even laughing at the notion of him playing in the Hub. Kevin Garnett once displayed similar skepticism. Now, he’s an eternal Celtic. Those cultural concerns can be overcome. But Garnett was 31 when he arrived and stood 7 feet tall, not 6-2.
President of basketball operations Brad Stevens has gone from running it back to contemplating a full-blown roster renovation.
The Celtics already have shipped out their longest-tenured player,Marcus Smart, in a deal that brought back Porzingis, and orchestrated a sign-andtrade on Wednesday that sent Grant Williams to Dallas.
But Lillard is too big a risk at too great a cost for too short a championship window. Save those bullets, Brad.
The sight of Lillard in a Celtics uniform feels like one of his trademark logo threes — a long shot.